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DJI & NASDAQ: Is Today the Day?

03 Dec 2003 by Jason Fried

Looks like the DJI might break 10,000 for the first time since June 02, and the NASDAQ might break 2000 for the first time since Mid-January 02. The S&P 500 has been on a steady march up since around April of this year. All this while the Dollar plumbs new lows vs. the Euro, and US Productivity hits 20-year highs. Which direction do you think the US Economy is headed? If you’re a business owner, can you feel it on your end? And, if you lay the blame on Bush for the recession, do you give him credit for the rebound? Or, are these just natural economic cycles?

12 comments so far (Post a Comment)

03 Dec 2003 | Paul said...

I don't think I'll rest easy until jobs start coming back in full force (or even with some sort of pressure resembling force.) Till then, it's good - but not great - news.

03 Dec 2003 | Chris said...

I've noticed a definte uptick in phone calls / emails from headhunters in the last 6 weeks. After not hearing from one for most of the year, I'm getting contacted weekly about job openings.

Don't know if its a trend of just me though. Hopefully - a trend.

03 Dec 2003 | Jon Gales said...

It's going to be interesting to see how the dem's try and wiggle out of their, "it's the economy stupid" viewpoint. From my view, the tax cuts worked. Now lets hire some more people, be even more productive and work on getting a surplus not a deficit.

03 Dec 2003 | One of several Steves said...

Bush did little to nothing to cause the recession, and little or nothing to end it. Economic cycles do what they will, although policy decisions do have profound effects over longer periods than a president's single term.

And that's where Bush will be judged. And, probably, judged miserably. Half-trillion dollar deficits are going to cause problems for the economy in the next 10 years. The 90s boom - which didn't really become bubbly till 98 or so - was sparked by elimination of deficits. The huge deficits, combined with huge trade deficits, are a big factor in the dollar's free-fall lately, and will drive up long-term interest rates and cause further currency stability.

And that's where I fault Bush economically. Cutting taxes and raising spending is a recipe for disaster. But that seems to be the Republican way since Reagan. Good thing we don't have those tax-and-spend Democrats running things anymore. Much better to borrow and spend.

03 Dec 2003 | ajr said...

I agree, but this will be a prime opportunity for both sidesto spin it. Which is why I hate both parties... they serve themselves before they serve the people.

03 Dec 2003 | The Scholar said...

I think it has more to do with economic cycles. The current (former) recession has a lot to do with the stock market and the way people were viewing the economy. Once people started getting over the depression of the dot-bomb and companies stopped panicking then the economy started to chug back in full swing. Only hope it can stay like this for a while.

04 Dec 2003 | RR said...

Consumer's are still being very cost sensitive, and want a good deal. I am seeing friends get jobs (in So. CA), which is a very nice change from the last two years. What I have noticed is companies want the perfect candidate and are willing to wait to that person apppears. They are also being a lot more rigorous in the hiring process. I have heard stories of 10 interviews to get a job. Still, a lot of outsourcing to India (IT and customer support) and China (mfg), which is worrisome from a long term view point for the US economy. Silicon Valley is still not doing well yet, huge amount of space for lease.

RR

05 Dec 2003 | hohoho said...

Good thing we don't have those tax-and-spend Democrats running things anymore. Much better to borrow and spend.

really great quote.

05 Dec 2003 | Sunny said...

For most dems:

-- The recession was Bush's fault (eventhough it started march 2000).

-- The rebound is market forces at work.

Thanks One of several steves and TheScholar for hitting it home about business cycles. We had a continuous 8 year growth (that frankly clinton had nothing to do with), and we dipped. It is a natural process. It has happened in the past, it will happen again.

08 Dec 2003 | One of several Steves said...

Following up on how Bush can and should be judged for the longer-term effects of his economic policy, there's a good article from Business Week comparing Bush to Nixon's disastrous economic policy of the early 70s, which led directly to double-digit inflation and 20 percent interest rates a few years later.

A couple choice quotes:

"[T]he Administration doesn't have any economic vision beyond tax cuts."

"More frightening is that it seems the President has no deeper policy strategy beyond getting reelected."

16 Jan 2004 | David said...

This topic is one we will tackle later in this article, but it refers to making sure that your application and the dock aren't fighting it out for supremacy of the screen.

16 Jan 2004 | Laura said...

This topic is one we will tackle later in this article, but it refers to making sure that your application and the dock aren't fighting it out for supremacy of the screen.

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