09 Jun 2004 | MrBlank said...

Don't you think they'd compress the video like iTunes AAC compressed music? DVD image files are way too big, especially if the movie is on multiple disks. I'm able to get TV shows off of eMule in just a few hours. I'm sure pay services can go much faster.

I'm not sure what the big deal is anyway. There aren't enough media PC in people's living rooms to watch the movies on. Until PCs sit in everyone's living room, VOD on a Tivo is the only thing that sounds worthwhile.

09 Jun 2004 | One of several Steves said...

I'm afraid Tivo is likely to end up being one of those companies who came up with a great innovation, did it better than anyone else, and still ends up losing. The cable companies have their own DVRs, and from trying to use friends', the interfaces and ease of operation, and even some of the basic functionality, are vastly inferior. But they have an easy way to undercut on price.

My guess is that Tivo will ultimately get bought by someone who wants the scheduling service revenue stream. I'm not sure download will save Tivo in a world where more and more cable providers are offering video on demand, which offers instant gratification instead of the delays, even of a few minutes if compression ever gets to that point, that Tivo will always have by using a download model.

09 Jun 2004 | Tom Keekley said...

You'll pry my Tivo from my dead, cold fingers. Well, not really, but . . .

09 Jun 2004 | pb said...

Tivo lost me when it became apparent that it's Hollywood "partners" would cause it to make bad customer decisions (e.g., program extraction).

If you haven't tried MovieLink yet, check it out. It actually works and you can get movies for as little as 79 cents. A full download takes an hour or so but you can begin viewing after about 2 minutes of downloading. MovieLink's fatal problem is that while you have 30 days to *start* watching, you only have 24 hours to finish, once you've started.

I sure hope Apple's working on 1) iTunes Video Store and 2) some sort of Tivo-like device. I think Jobs may be fibbing when he downplays these markets.

09 Jun 2004 | Rob said...

The move by Direct Tv to sell it shares in Tivo does not mean the end of Tivo/Direct Tv combo boxes. Tivo has an agreement with Direct Tv to supply them with their boxes thru 2007. I would hate to see the Direct Tv Tivo (DVR) go away since I have one of these boxes and love it!
On another note, I also think it is important to note that Tivo did acquire a company called Strangeberryin the beginning of this year. Strangeberry was a Silicon Valley start-up of former Sun Microsystem engineers which specialized in home network boxes and broadband equipment. I read somewhere that Strangeberry had developed an extremely simple way to connect all of your electronic equipment very easilly through this software that Strangeberry had developed. Basically, plug your computer or whatever into your network and it would recognize your device and make sharing of files, video, etc. very easy. Just like Tivo did with recording TV. I think that there is a possibility that Tivo will be incoporating the Strangeberry technology into future Tivo boxes and making the Tivo your default media center appliance.

09 Jun 2004 | MrBlank said...

iTunes Video store! There's an idea. Take that and add video streaming to the new Airport Express and Apple'd have something for me to get excited about. (I mean, come on, the Airport Express, as it is, isn't really that cool or innovative.)

09 Jun 2004 | pb said...

The Strangeberry stuff sounds similar to Rendezvouz/ZeroConf. ZeroConf over Wi-fi is pretty cool. Apple's nicely positioned here as this work perfectly on Macs today.

09 Jun 2004 | Darrel said...

If you haven't tried MovieLink yet, check it out.

Hmm...the page just sits there saying 'loading'.

I'm guessing this is some proprietary Windows only thing?

iTunes Video store!

I agree. It's turning into the RIAA issue again. The consumer options are to either a) Go to blockbuster, pay $5 for a scratched DVD that they'll likely end up paying a late fee for or b) download it for free of the net. *

The net was supposed to cut out all of the costs of distribution and physical media. I has, of course, but the industries have yet to pass that on to the consumer. (though it sounds like MovieLInk is trying to do that...)

I still say the solution is to just tax broadband users that want to download movies and music. Give me a subscription plan without the DRM and I'll gladly pay.

* granted, there are other options. Pay-per view is one of them, but I have yet to take the time to hook up my DirecTV box to my phone line, plus you have a limited selection. And netflix is great, but I can't quite justify the monthly costs yet for the number of movies I get around to watching per month.

09 Jun 2004 | pb said...

Apple just put music videos and movie trailers in iTunes. Surely movies couldn't be far behind!!

09 Jun 2004 | pb said...

Yes, MovieLink is Windows-only as they have gone with Microsoft DRM. Once you get passed that, it works as you would expect (except for the too-short window within which to finish watching the movie). And except for it being "tivo-quality" which isn't great on, say a 42" plasma.

Having just complained about MovieLink's specific DRM, I will say that it is far preferable to a tax.

Re, NetFlix: I would expect it or someone else to come out with a more palatable pricing scheme for the "rest of us". Something like $4.95/month plus $1.49 per movie. $22/month (for life!) for a few movies is a bit outrageous.

09 Jun 2004 | sloan said...

The problem for the cable companies that are competing with Tivo is that Tivo is about delivering content when their customers want it. Cable companies are about... selling cable. I think Tivo has the opportunity to really put a stake in the ground and make some noise. It takes these behemoth cable companies too long to react. I mean, they've been doing cable ISP stuff for how long and haven't done this yet?

What would be cool is if Tivo and Apple joined together to make it happen with acceptable DRM and to allow iPods to dock to the DVRs, add Airport to them, and allow streaming from any zero config device (computer or otherwise)... now THAT would be cool. There is no reason it can't happen with 802.11g and zero config (Apple's Rendezvouz). The content contracts is the tricky part.

10 Jun 2004 | Paul said...

Steve Jobs has already publicly pooh-poohed the idea of an iTunes Video Store, noting that music and movies are very different mediums. Could it still happen? I suppose, but people are still using dialup. That would be painful to say the least.

Frankly I'm worried about the beloved TiVo. I've had a TiVo since the original 13-hour models were released, made my way to the DirecTV model, and now have a 40-hour Series 2. Although you still hear people talking about TiVo, it remains this semi-geeky toy. On the marketing side of things, TiVo would do well to study the iPod and Apple's strategy behind it; while TiVo is a largely new product idea, iPod moved from being an exclusive toy to being a slightly-less-exclusive status symbol (and toy) in short order.

A DirecTV TiVo with pay-per-view is probably as close to VOD as TiVo currently gets, but I must admit it's pretty good. Order a movie, record it at 12:30am, and keep it forever.

I do fear that with this move, TiVo is further marginalizing itself to Geeky Toy status rather than New VCR for Mom & Pop. They need to get the box under $100 (even a 10-hour model - no rebates, etc.) first, and reconsider the monthly fee.

10 Jun 2004 | One of several Steves said...

It takes these behemoth cable companies too long to react. I mean, they've been doing cable ISP stuff for how long and haven't done this yet?

Combine the DVRs that most cable companies are already rolling out with the video-on-demand services they have, and explain how Tivo is doing anything different or better than what the cable companies are doing?

The cable industry is not as sclerotic as you think. Certain cable companies, like Cox and Comcast, are at the leading edge of the possibilities of using coax for more than just delivering TV signals. Time Warner recognized the value of DVRs and jumped on that bandwagon early.

Paul's right that Tivo needs to get the price down (they just went to $129 for the base model, which I think is 40 hours). No one I've ever known who's bought a Tivo has regretted it for a second. The challenge is getting people to understand why they should get it in the first place.

And that's why I worry about their long-term prospects too. Most people will be perfectly happy taking the DVR that comes bundled with the digital cable box, even if the interface is crap in comparison. Because they'll do it on price. They're already paying for the box anyway, as well as the schedule that the cable companies provide.

Tivo would create more value, I think, in focusing on the other direction - instead of allowing movement of downloaded items to the box, allow movement of items from the box to the computer, for conversion to SVCD, DVD, etc. Of course, that's similar to what got Replay in trouble, but Apple has shown a very workable digital rights management model that Tivo should look to emulating.

10 Jun 2004 | pb said...

Steve Jobs has already publicly pooh-poohed the idea of an iTunes Video Store
I certainly wouldn't use that data point to rule anything out.

Tivo's monthly charges (or large lifetime charge) are a big problem. Th ecable companies will bake most of the charges into their existing fees. Tivo's problem is that if you compare it to a VCR, the monthly charge is awkward. Contrary to popular belief, people do *not* like monthly bills. And I think most people consider $14/month a bit much for retrieving TV listings.

11 Jun 2004 | ~bc said...

I have a Toshiba TiVo-DVD combo, which is cool, and comes with a TiVo Basic subscription, with no monthly fee. I love it. But I really want the Plus service and the Home Media Option. It sickens me how flipping expensive those are. And it just unlocks something I've already paid $400 dollars for. I love TiVo the company, but they're shooting themselves in the foot with this monthly shenanigans.

Isn't it about time we had a FireWire equipped TiVO? Who cares about a stinking USB port. Useless! FireWire has won an Emmy for pete's sakes!

And a second thought (and I'm not really in the know about this but...) wouldn't it be the iMovie Store?

What if you could access the iMovie Store from your FireWire equipped TiVO, anywhere in the house via AirPort Express-DV? Purrrrrrr

11 Jun 2004 | JF said...

It sickens me how flipping expensive those are. And it just unlocks something I've already paid $400 dollars for. I love TiVo the company, but they're shooting themselves in the foot with this monthly shenanigans.

Shooting themselves in the foot, or providing a service that costs money to develop, market, and execute with quality like they do? This sense of entitlement continues to amaze me. You didn't pay $400 for the TiVo service, you paid for the TiVo/DVD hardware -- the service costs extra to provide and if you want it you should pay for it.

11 Jun 2004 | Paul said...

JF: ...the service costs extra to provide and if you want it you should pay for it.

Indeed, but a TiVo box without the service is pretty much useless. It's a hard drive VCR that can pause live TV - not much more.