09 Jul 2004 | Jonny Roader said...

The inaccuracy of the normally ultra-reliable BBC Weather service before this month has, in a typically British way, been a subject of much smalltalk I've participated in (or overheard) recently.

It's been tipping it down here in the UK for about three or four weeks now, though, and it really doesn't take a genius to predict that it will be raining for a while still yet.

10 Jul 2004 | lisa said...

i've recently moved to charlotte, nc and i noticed that happening here quite a bit as well. I assumed it was because of the varied climates in this region...but maybe not.

Question -- Does a weatherman (p.c. weatherPERSON) have to be a meteorologist or is he or she merely reporting on someone elses findings?

10 Jul 2004 | John Y. said...

Lisa: the latter, although not always.

10 Jul 2004 | Dr_God said...

Are weatherpeople even necessary anymore? It's all just computers and Doppler. A TV station should try and boost ratings by having B grade celebs come in and do the weather. All you really have to do is learn how to point to stuff on the green screen.

10 Jul 2004 | Chris from Scottsdale said...

Most of the weatherpeople just go to fairs and local events and report the weather from the scene. Some segments they don't even tell you what the weather is. I have a suspicion that sometimes the TV stations get paid to "feature" a local company in the weather segments.

In Phoenix it's pretty pathetic anyways. Oh, look! Another sunny day and it's going to be really hot outside, like yesterday pretty much. Maybe hotter.

Ugh.

10 Jul 2004 | Eby said...

I was once a meterology major and still take the occasional class. As for the comment about computers do everything, that's not really accurate. The models are getting better they still have a ways to go. A local meteorologist that you see on TV probably won't do much, but the regional or national ones, who make the forecasts, have to weed through the model outputs and data and decide which model to trust (there are multiple and they often disagree) and it usually changes throughout the day. If you go to national or regional weather sites, you can usually find the plain text weather discussion which can give you an idea about how much they trust their forecast by the wording they use. It can also be a regional issue on how reliable the forecast is. The great lakes around michigan where I am can throw some loops at you. Here's part of a discussion for today in my area:

ETA AND GFS WERE PRETTY BAD AT INITIALIZING LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SINCE IT WASN'T AS BAD AS THE GFS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO PART OF FRIDAY.

I have noticed an drop in the reliability lately, though I haven't been keeping up with the discussions so I don't know if there's any specific reason for it. Hopefully one day there will be a model good enough that people don't have to make "educated guesses".

For anyone who wants to see the output of the models, you can find them on the unisys site (for North America)
http://weather.unisys.com/

10 Jul 2004 | Douglas said...

I've seen more programs on TV recently taking the "the weather is getting less predictable" line, and then doing interviews with the ice-people complaining about permafrost melting and seas not freezing.

I'd not be surprised if that's true...

Douglas

11 Jul 2004 | Fish Sauce said...

I have never paid any attention to forecasts. Five words:

"Sensetive dependence on initial conditions."

Even the best models are not very good.

12 Jul 2004 | Tom Keekley said...

I don't listen to the weather on TV anymore. I use weatherpop!

12 Jul 2004 | Benjy said...

Time to run Tom Skilling out of town!

You're right... they have been terrible lately. When I took off last Tues. and Wed. it looked like Wed. was going to be the better day for a planned hike at Starved Rock State Park, but we went Tues. because of other Wed. evening commitments. We ended up with a pretty nice day (other than a late-day shower) and Wed. was pretty bad the whole day!

I was glad they screwed up Sat. though! They were calling for rain until late afternoon but it was a picture perfect day for North Ave. Beach.

12 Jul 2004 | Emily Petrick said...

Ultimately for me, knowing the forecast is frustrating at best:

1. If you think it's 'supposed to rain' you spend the day worrying or at least thinking about it. "They said it was supposed to rain.."

2. If you're like me (and even more so if you have kids) you plan for the weather - you bring a jacket, you bring sunscreen and a hat, etc.

3. No matter what it is, you can't control it. Just because you have a camping trip planned and the forecast says rain - will that make you cancel your trip - I hope not.

See - just so unsatisfying. Be prepared.

I almost never listen to/read the weather forecast. I do love tracking big storms with doppler though. Fun. Fun if you're safe at home that is.

13 Jul 2004 | da' bears said...

Boot them all out! Replace them with someone you can trust, someone that knows the value of accuracy and dependability. My friends, that someone is Ditka!

13 Jul 2004 | Jeff said...

Why do people really care about the weather so much? Never understood this. Just keep an umbrella handy. Dress in layers. No big woop. Why is everyone so afraid of getting some water on their clothes or hair? If you did what your Mom told you and eat healthy, have plenty of Vitamin C, then the big bad germs won't kill you everytime you get a raindrop on your shoulder.

;)

13 Jul 2004 | Jeff said...

Oh, and likewise, why do we place all of this expectation on weathermen anyway? Gawd, you give people a finger and they take the whole hand. Wake up folks, meteorology is not an exact science. It's not the weather man's fault. It's our fault for creating these fantasy worlds that revolve around these crazy concepts that "we can't be productive" during times of inclement weather.

I think without the weather to complain about, people would be bored half to death.

13 Jul 2004 | p8 said...

hmm, strange.
I have noticed the same thing here in Holland. Weather forecasts have been terrible this year.
You can't plan anything.

Postponing outdoor activities because it was supposed to rain all day and then having a sunny day sucks.

14 Jul 2004 | Dan H said...

Yeah, weather is chaotic, unpredictable and yadda yadda, but at least you guys in Chicago get Tom Skilling. He's the best weather reporter of all time. I'm in Germany for the summer and it's cold and wet. In the states I just go to weather.gov, i figure that's what most cracker-jack weather reporters read anyway.

16 Jul 2004 | Rob said...

Tom Skilling is the only local weather man that actually forecasts the weather. Do a comparison of Tommy Sillethead's weather forecast with that of any TV station. The results will be very different. Christ! WGN gives Tommy Skillethead a five minute segment to report the weather. Multiple wind pattern maps are impressive.