Charting freedom vs. oil - Signal vs. Noise (by 37signals)

Charting freedom vs. oil Matt 26 Sep 2006

24 comments Latest by MyNameIsMatt

In The First Law of Petropolitics, Thomas Friedman argues there is a correlation between the price of oil and political freedoms in certain countries:

The first law of petropolitics: As the pace of freedom declines, the price of oil goes up; as the price of oil goes down, the pace of freedom increases.

There’s a chart that accompanies the article that seems to prove his assertion.

“What you basically see is this relationship where as the price of oil goes down the pace of freedom goes up in countries like Nigeria, Iran and Russia, and as the price of oil goes up the pace of freedom goes down, and the lines actually cross in all of these graphs.”

But there’s a chartjunk problem here: the mystery y-axis. Overlapping two different vertical scales this way can be a very misleading tactic, as Junk Charts points out.

Sadly, his most amazing finding is the least interesting: given two lines drawn on two different axes, measured in two different units (one in dollars, the other in index numbers), the crossovers are merely an artifact created by the chart designer. Just changing the scale, or shifting the lines vertically, will cause this amazing feature to immediately vanish.

Friedman’s argument has some powerful implications. Too bad this sketchy “apples to oranges” information design undermines the point a bit.

(Note: Registration required to read full foreignpolicy.com article linked above but you can also read a quick summary with the chart or an edited version without the chart.)

24 comments so far (Jump to latest)

Phil 26 Sep 06

The problem with the chart is the ancedotal “freedoms”. Sure, while the Berlin wall was falling there was freedom being gained, but at the same time freedoms were being lost in Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Somalia, Rwanda, and Iraq. And conversely when the oil price was going up, one could argue there were freedoms being gained in China, Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Chile and Nigeria.

Ryan Sonnek 26 Sep 06

Kinda funny how at first glance it looks like “freedom” is only worth about $50.

Derek 26 Sep 06

Funny how at 2005/2006 the “freedom decline” is marked as “Iran calls for Israel’s destruction” and not “U.S. murders thousands in Iraq” or “Israel murders thousands in Lebanon.” I guess that’s what you get from Thomas Friedman!

The whole thing is bogus.

Chris Carter 26 Sep 06

“Friedman�s argument has some powerful implications. Too bad this sketchy �apples to oranges� information design undermines the point a bit.”

It doesn’t “undermine the point” if there’s no point to begin with, as having false or misleading data would suggest.

Chris Mear 26 Sep 06

the crossovers are merely an artifact created by the chart designer

Eh, the crossover isn’t the interesting bit. The interesting bit is the observation that as one goes up, the other goes down. Doesn’t matter what vertical scale or position you use, that observation is still true.

Greg 26 Sep 06

Ummm, how exactly does one chart an abstract concept like “freedom”? I think that’s the biggest issue with the graph.

Walker Hamilton 26 Sep 06

One charts it with a Freedom-eter.

I happen to have one right here for the “Free” price of $50 dollars US.

Nick Dynice 26 Sep 06

Well, if neither one was rising or declining, they would both be at their own zero point. Is there a probme with representing the zero point for both freedom and the price of gas at the same place?

Ummm….yes, because you would still be missing a y-axis.

If Years is the x-axis for both.
And Dollars is the y-axis for Oil.
What is the y-axis unit of measurement for “Freedom”?

Neveryoumind 26 Sep 06

�Israel murders thousands in Lebanon.� ? Please — even al Jazeera doesn’t pretend it was that bad.

Jon Raphaelson 26 Sep 06

Whether it was _that_ bad or not, what right does country A have invading country B because country B has some bad people in it? I mean, why doesn’t the US invade Canada to get that Pot guy from Vancouver? And I’m not saying Pot == Terrorism or Kidnapping, just that the principle is the same.

Steven Andrew Miller 26 Sep 06

Kinda funny how at first glance it looks like �freedom� is only worth about $50.

Well all know that Freedom costs $1.05.

Ismael 26 Sep 06

That’s so vague and inaccurate that it’s completely pointless… I don’t recall the 80’s as being a haven for freedom exactly (Iran had the Ayatollah, now at least it has an elected president, like it or not). I think the real meaning of “freedom” here is “convenience for the US”.

Eddie 26 Sep 06

True/accurate or not, this chart is very simple, clear with the point it’s asserting, and visually appealing.

…could use a yellow fade in there somewhere though.

marc thompson 26 Sep 06

Looks like “freedom” is defined as domination by oil consuming nations. When the price is low, producer nations end up kowtowing to large consumer nations. When the price is high, large consumer nations kowtow to producer nations. This is nothing new. Adam Smith called it supply and demand. In 1776.

Knee Jerk 26 Sep 06

Derek Hogue said:
“Funny how at 2005/2006 the �freedom decline� is marked as �Iran calls for Israel�s destruction� and not �U.S. murders thousands in Iraq� or �Israel murders thousands in Lebanon.�”

Because the latter two are ridiculous, untrue, and inflamatory knee-jerk vehement anti-US assertions.

patrick 26 Sep 06

This cart doesn’t work at all as most of you point out. While there may be a perceived correlation between our freedom and the price of oil, Freedom is not quantifiable and therefore cannot be compared to the price of oil.

There is a perception of lost freedom, but really…what freedoms have we lost?

Eric Knudtson 26 Sep 06

To me this is just classic Friedman. He likes to emphasize the the facts that support his world view and ignore those that don’t. Not saying that we all aren’t guilty of this. That said, I think we need a more nuanced way of looking at the world (*not necessarily complex*)

He makes the world seem flat, and that’s a nice fairy tale, but it doesn’t serve us very well if we really want to understand wha the %^@# is going on.

Prashant 26 Sep 06

“I think the real meaning of �freedom� here is �convenience for the US�.”

I agree with you here . this seems to be the whole premise here Freedom=US Convienience

why only oil look at the way drug companies simply wave off their royalty once there is a major out break of some disses in USA but at the same time want starving south african to honour patent and copyright

Dom 26 Sep 06

This is silly.

MT Heart 27 Sep 06

Amazing. Both freedom and price of oil affect sunspot activity:

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml

Or is it the other way round? I forget now.

Cause and effect - show me.

sham 27 Sep 06

Yes, it is silly, and it will work on countless people that read Mr. Friedman everyday. And they will feel really, really smart. Of course, those will be the ones that already agree with his point of view as Eric noted. Drawing causal relationships is the oldest trick in the chartmaker’s bag.

MyNameIsMatt 27 Sep 06

I’m curious, but how many commenters have actually read the whole piece, or are you trashing the idea based on a very simplistic and arguably poorly designed graph?