true, true…

and it’s always easy to be sleazy towards an invention/product/idea once it’s there. Almost nobody can see the amount of work that has been put in.

Ha, I like this one.

“Bang, Bang” always beats “Tweet-Tweet”... Thomas Friedman

All revolutions were inevitable, otherwise they would not have happened (inaccurate quote from “Black Swan”)

Maybe all revolutions might seem inevitable – but the success of the revolution is not.

There is also a difference between revolutions where the general population is seriously fed up with the government (not necessarily supporting the policies of the eventual new leaders) and revolutions planned and executed by small groups of people.

The Tsar-ruled Russia in the early 20th century is, as far as I understand, an example of the first. It would have taken an enormous feat of the ruling class to avoid that revolution – a reconstruction of the entire type of government. Almost a revolution in itself. (I don’t know much about it, but Japan’s gradual opening to the rest of the world in the 19th century could possibly be seen as an example of a rigid government changing itself in relative peace.) The fact that the communists took power probably had more to do with them seeing an opportunity to piggyback on people’s disappointments.

An example of the other kind is the Cuban revolution where a small group of leaders instigated the uprising. Had the Castro brothers and their handful of right-hands been killed in one of the early battles it is more likely that the revolution would have failed. Maybe the previous government would have fallen eventually either way, but it is less likely that such a strong leader would rise in their place.

One can also wonder why there are so few successful anti-communist revolutions. Is it because communist governments keep their populations in a tight leash (secret police, informants, imprisonment of political opposers) or because the “classes” most likely to revolt are those most content with communist rule (an anti-point to this is of course most anti-communist revolutions…).

A third type of revolution is that which is instigated by a foreign power – like those in South America in the 60’s-80’s (by both US and SU), certain former Soviet states in recent years and the installation of the Shah in Iran. Unless they fail, most seem successful for a few years but they seem to have a high chance of backfire quite quickly.