Busting your ass planning something important? Feel like you can’t proceed until you have a bulletproof plan in place? Replace “plan” with “guess” and take it easy. That’s all plans really are anyway: guesses.
So next time you’re working on a business plan, call it a business guess. And that financial plan? It’s a financial guess. Strategic planning? Call it with it really is: a strategic guess. 5 year plan? You mean 5 year guess.
There’s nothing wrong with guessing, dreaming, or predicting, but it’s not planning. Planning’s too definite a term for most things. We often use planning when we really mean guessing. And what we call it has a lot to do with how we think about it, do about it, and devote to it. I think companies often over think, over do, and over devote to planning.
So next time call a plan a guess and just get to work.
Rob
on 14 Jul 09Ok… having been involved in a lot of software development planning: I agree with your statement! It is mostly guessing.
How would you describe something like SCRUM, which involves a lot of (well educated) guessing, but still leads to some sort of planning?
Amber
on 14 Jul 09Perhaps the semantic change of using the word guessing instead of planning will help some folks get off their butt, but I disagree with your description of planning. Planning is absolutely NOT something that needs to lead to any sort of “bulletproof plan”. Maybe that would be called “bulletproof planning”.
Planning just leads to a work-in-progress plan whose success hinges on planning being a frequent activity and constantly changing. Planning is absolutely integral to success, whether you call it guessing or whatever (although the word dreaming seems a bit misleading).
I think this post confuses the idea of planning with “having a plan”.
Noah
on 14 Jul 09I agree with Amber that you’re conflating multiple meanings of “plan” a bit.
I’d say that “plan” combines “guess” with “intention”. Saying that plan means guess doesn’t excuse you from figuring out what you intend to do.
gvb
on 14 Jul 09Plans are nothing; planning is everything.
— Dwight D. Eisenhower
Luke G
on 14 Jul 09Plans are definitely rife with guesses, but I’ve found that’s the most useful thing about them. A plan is a place to lay out all of your hypotheses (guesses) and propose ways to test them. Explicitly detailing your hypotheses/guesses/fantasies ahead of time can save a ton of heartache later.
How many ideas or product conversations have you heard where someone says “It’s going to work like this,” or “customers are going to want to to this.” OK, maybe, but that’s a hypothesis. Be transparent about it and then go get some f*ing data.
James
on 14 Jul 09I fully agree. When things go according to “plan”, people are calm and don’t get bent out of shape but as soon as something different happens, people can sometimes go crazy (the hospital scene from the Dark Knight seems to fit here). I think that if more people were able to untrain themselves in thinking everything is a plan and that it’s just guesses based on a good and positive intentions, that there’d be a lot less stress and meetings sometimes.
jhoysi
on 14 Jul 09I agree with the underlying message of this post – that a plan shouldn’t be what hinders you from getting a project started – but I do disagree with how you communicated it.
Simply calling a plan just a “guess” seems like an easy way to shirk a lot of the responsibility that planning comes with. Planning for worst-case scenarios, for example. If we are suddenly just “guessing” for worst-case scenarios, and leaving it at that we “guess” they will or will not exist, that is hardly a responsible way to conduct business.
A plan is not bulletproof, true. But, it is a little more concrete than merely a guess.
Jean-Pierre Bobbaers
on 14 Jul 09Good (correct) Statement ! I am more interested in the why?
Would you agree, since the world is flat and changes overnight, so speed of things, planning becomes a guess ?
So? How do you make an offer/estimate? How do you make a (bus) plan to get a loan?
Luis
on 14 Jul 09Time spent planning is time that could be spent on getting it done.
mshp
on 14 Jul 09Luis: more time spent on planning means gaining better understanding of the subject. And it often leads to significantly simpler (aka better) solution then the first obvious one. All of us sometimes need the time to think it really through.
Adam Thody
on 14 Jul 09Reality- and evidence-based plans can provide you with real time feedback re: project performance. Don’t think of a plan as a roadmap, because there are infinite ways to reach most destinations. More appropriately, a plan is a set of constraints: a budget, a timeline, a set of expectations, a direction. With a detailed plan you have reference points.
If none of those things matter to your business, sure, I suppose you could just guess.
Ben Mc
on 14 Jul 09You guys are REALLY pushing to get rid of the word “plan” for some reason. I don’t understand.
For me, a plan is a mission. I actually DO complete my plans. For me, it’s not a guess at all, it’s what’s GOING to happen.
It’s sad that you think you have no dedication to complete anything you set out to do – in reality you do because you put out great products and new features. Face it, you have plans and you make them happen – be proud of it.
If not, and you’re always guessing, are you saying that if you tell your users something is coming (like a feature) that you are just blowing smoke because you are actually just assuming that you might actually do what you say you are planning to do? Should we no longer have faith that good things are to come from 37signals?
Why not stop guessing, start planning, and stick to it. Do what you say you are going to do in your plan whether it’s for yourself or for others.
You don’t always have to go against the grain just to drum up comments on your blog and get social network links, trust me, people will link to you anyway :)
Errant
on 14 Jul 09Guess implies a level of ignorance in your data. Plan implies less ignorance and more consideration.
Plan != Planning.
These are simple simple concepts :)
Happy
on 14 Jul 09Where do I sign up for the Basecamp Premium Guess? :)
p.s. Errant has it right. Don’t go mucking with words that already have perfectly clear meaning. Jason’s getting hung up on having a bulletproof plan. Simply acknowledging plans are rarely bulletproof (not discarding the word all-together) is the way to go.
Luis
on 14 Jul 09mshp: What you said makes perfect sense. I suppose I equate planning with meetings, which I totally hate. Meetings are often excuses to sit around and ponder stuff rather than actually doing the work…that’s more what I was talking about.
Benjamin Welch
on 14 Jul 09I just wanted to say Happy Tenth! You guys are my heroes! You are the best kick in the ass the web could offer. Cut the bullshit and get to work doing what you love!
Guy35
on 14 Jul 09Yes there is a lot of guessing involved and anyone on the inside knows that , but when it comes to presenting the company to outside people they really do need a ””””“plan”””” note the quotation marks :)
Aris Bartee
on 14 Jul 091 goal per plan.
The real problem is that we don’t plan. A plan is a specific and precise set of activities executed to achieve a very real goal.
Goals are achieved linearly. This means that a plan that has more than one goal. Will likely not realize the second goal and onward. Knowing HOW to plan means knowing what activities need to happen for a goal to be achieved. Knowing HOW to plan also means that success is not a goal. Success is the evaluation of the activities of a plan.
So the only way to plan to make a million dollars, is to take the steps to do 1 or more things where each step generates a portion of a million dollars. Coding and hosting an application doesn’t do that, sales does.
So I plan, but I don’t lie to myself about what my goals are.
Mevio
on 14 Jul 09Jason, in general this could be true for small projects, let’s think about building a house, a bridge, or implementing a complex software… impossible without planning. Of course I agree that it’s better if long term plans are called indications or strategies…
Kevin
on 14 Jul 09Planning starts getting screwy when it starts getting to detailed. Or when product owners start talking about architecture. Go eat another cinnamon roll fatty, and let me figure out the best design pattern.
Gerry
on 14 Jul 09“Time spent planning is time that could be spent on getting it done.”
That’s all fine and well assuming you have a good understanding of what “it” is. Most people plan so they have a clue about that.
Bryan Hoyt
on 14 Jul 09Very good point, Jason, and worth thinking about the implications.
However, it does leave me asking “What’s the point of the word ‘plan’, then?” I mean, planning is always for the future, and the future is always unpredictable.
Happy, you make a good point.
Brandstrup
on 14 Jul 09— Antoine de Saint-Exupéry (1900-1944)
Sounds better than “A goal without a guess is just a wish”. The two words are just not the same, but JF’s experiment is well appreciated.
David A
on 14 Jul 09Totally agree with op. But we need to understand “plan” (and “planning”) means (at least) two things.
1) (Determine) the steps needed to reach the target, and their order
2) (Assign) time estimates to steps (i.e. more or less educated guesses)
Of course, plan(2) is much more than time estimates as it includes plan(1), but the insight that the numbers in the plan are guesses, not imperatives, has consequences.
If during the project it is discovered that a step planned to take 3 weeks really needs 5 weeks, instead of torturing people to do the impossible, just acknowledge that the estimate was wrong, change it to 5 weeks, and proceed.
If fixed date “milestones” cannot be avoided, one must have worst case estimates in the plan, or a plan B. Torturing employees is not an option.
Turtles be elastic, all the way down.
Mark
on 15 Jul 09Business plans are assumptions given to someone else in order to obtain / or continue receiving resources. Resumes and cover letters are also assumptions (guesses) as to how well an individual will match up with your company in order to gain a share of your resources (salary).
Given that, why would you put so much weight on a cover letter and hardly any on a business plan?
Your “get to work” philosophy would seem to play better with the idea of personal interview in lieu of a repetition of a resume in the context of a cover letter.
Doug Davidoff
on 15 Jul 09You say this with a perjorative context – as if guessing were bad (despite your statement that there is nothing wrong with guessing). Success in anything is not about being right – it’s about being progressively less wrong – faster.
So, IMHO, planning is the right word – it’s just the interpretation that there are absolutes that is wrong.
Dave!
on 15 Jul 09I enjoy your posts, because they get me thinking. But this time, I’m thinking you’re dead wrong.
A bad plan is a guess.
A good plan clearly outlines goals, possible impediments to those goals, and the steps you will execute to achieve those goals. An excellent plan is also flexible enough to allow for change and is a living document that guides you—not a rigid set of rules that hinders you.
You wouldn’t design a UI without some sketches first (I hope!). A good plan is just that: sketches. Not guess work at all. It’s a process. It’s a plan.
Anthony Eden
on 15 Jul 09Jason, I agree totally with your statements. Somehow, however, I don’t think the people who I am responsible to started receiving strategic guesses every few months – it would be amusing to try one day, though :)
Nick Lindwall
on 15 Jul 09Call it a guess, or a plan, or whatever you want. It’s irrelevant without a goal. Of course, there’s nothing certain about a plan because you can’t predict the future, but whether you’re guessing or planning you’ve got have at least a rough idea of what you’re trying to achieve.
Jesus A. Domingo
on 15 Jul 09Quotable, from Doug Davidoff
Nice!
Anonymous Coward
on 15 Jul 09awwww snap!
Anonymous Coward
on 15 Jul 09Remember the good advice from the Navy Admiral in The Hunt for Red October... A Russkie never takes a dump without a plan!!!
carbonrobot
on 16 Jul 09“In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.”
-Dwight D. Eisenhower
Matt
on 17 Jul 09The point here isn’t that plans / guesses are bad. Just don’t spend a ridiculous amount of time trying to make them perfect. It gets in the way of actually doing the work.
Personally, I’d rather have a lazy person on my team than one that over plans. At least the lazy person knows what they’re not doing.
Jesus A. Domingo
on 17 Jul 09I’ve read somewhere (I think it’s from this blog as well) that if you want something done in the simplest and easiest way possible, assign it to a lazy person.
Drew
on 17 Jul 09When I want to get across town for, say, an important interview, I make a plan to catch “x” train, walk two blocks, and pick up “y” bus, leaving enough extra time to account for less than perfect coordination of those factors. I have a train schedule, I know how quickly I can walk two blocks, and I have a bus schedule.
This is not a guess, it is a plan. I am taking the parameters as I know them and formulating a process based on the interaction of those parameters. Should it turn out that the train isn’t running, or the bus is broken down, or the street I planned to walk on is closed for construction, this does not mean my plan was a guess, it means my information on what would happen did not match unforeseen contingencies. I will, upon encountering each of these obstacles, immediately revise my plan so as to be able to accomplish the next step and get there on time. I will also have a backup plan of “I know you can usually get cabs quickly at this street”.
What I would not do is, without any information about the transit system or the roads, say “well, I guess it will take 45 minutes, that sounds about right… there will probably be a train somewhere near where I start, and I can probably find a bus somewhere near where I end up that takes me in the general direction I need to go. I don’t know the streets, but I’ll probably see street signs and maybe someone on the street will know how to get there.”
This would be a series of guesses would, without a tremendous helping of luck, probably make me late or absent from my interview. Ironically, it would still technically be a “plan”, despite how vague the steps, as I am assembling them in my mind in an order that leads to arriving at the office. Even a series of guesses, strung together in an expected order is planning. It’s just poor planning.
João Guilherme
on 18 Jul 09Hi Jason … I agree with you and here is a nice video from Wharton talking about the same idea .. take a lool http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2227
JG
oh right
on 18 Jul 09Fellow pilots, fill out your flight guesses!
Brian
on 20 Jul 09Is this why there are no gantt charting capabilities in Basecamp? :)
winter
on 21 Jul 09US population growth without immigration in zero. We need immigrants for our population to grow. Shoes fashion including Gucci Shoes,UGG Shoes and Louis Vuitton Handbags Fashion, Handbags Fashion supply Gucci Handbags and Louis Vuitton Handbags, Footwear collection , Jewelry Trends says Tiffany Jewelry,Louis Vuitton and Gucci Shoes.
boyee
on 21 Jul 09Something like 30% (more?) of mortgages are underwater right now, and you can bet a huge percentage of them will end in foreclosure regardless of all other pressures. If it’s half-15%-then that pretty much blows away a few points of uptick in unemployment. From Uk Tiffany Jewellery ,you can get how to Pick the Tiffany Jewellery, Tiffany World is heading for Tiffany Jewellery Web site Comparing. Sunglasses and Share jewelry
This discussion is closed.