Ultimately, the best test of any product is to go to your target market and pretend like it’s a real business. You’ll find out soon enough if it is or not. You have to take some risks. You can sit and analyze these different markets forever and ever and ever, and you’d get all these wonderful answers, and they still may be wrong. The problem with the businessman type is they spend a lot of time with all their great wisdom and all their spreadsheets and all their Harvard Business Review people, and they’d either become convinced that there’s no market at all or that they have the market nailed.
One of the entrepreneurs profiled by Saras Sarasvathy in “How Great Entrepreneurs Think.” Among Inc. 500 CEOs, 60 percent had not written business plans before launching their companies and just 12 percent had done market research, according to the article.