At the end of every interview someone inevitably asks “Where do you see 37signals in five years? Ten years? 20 years?” My answer remains the same: “Still in business. Beyond that I have no idea.”
Five years ago I had no idea we’d release Basecamp. Four years ago I had no idea we’d release Ta-da List. Three years ago I had no idea we’d release Backpack or Campfire. Two years ago I had no idea we’d release Highrise. Did I ever think we’d write another book? Not until we started it. And what about next year? I’m not entirely sure what we’re going to be working on.
You know more later than you do now
Just as we don’t believe in functional specs for software, we don’t believe in functional specs for companies. Planning it all out beforehand puts too much faith in the unknown. You know more about something while you’re doing it than before you’ve started. Just as we don’t much about the product we’re going to build before we build it, we don’t know much about the business opportunities before they happen. Books, plans, and documents may tell you how things should be, but only real experience tells you how things really are.
But??!!
“But if you don’t know where you’re going how are you going to get there.” We don’t know where we’re going. We know where we are. For us, what’s next is what’s now and what’s now is probably what’s next. Today’s weather is the best indicator of tomorrow’s weather. Things change, but not as much or as fast as most think. Focusing too much on the stuff that changes is why many companies lose their way. They’re always tripping over themselves as they try to keep pace with what’s new. People want what works, not what’s new.
Focus on what won’t change
The best business advice I’ve ever heard was this: “Focus on the things that won’t change.” Today and ten years from now people will still want simple things that work. Today and ten years from now people will still want fast software. Today and ten years from now people will still want fair prices. I don’t believe we’ll have a “I want complex, slow, and expensive products” revolution in 2017.
You can still evolve, improve, and innovate
Focusing on the things that won’t change doesn’t mean you’re stale, slow, or unwilling to adapt. It means that in ten years time your products will be more refined, more perfected, more efficient. Japanese cars sucked when they first came on to the market, but today they’re seriously refined and seriously good. This is because Japanese auto makers focused on principals that don’t change: Reliability, affordability, practicality. People wanted those things 30 years ago, they want them today, and they’ll want them 30 years from now. Constant refinement of those principals yields wonderful products.
Real opportunity comes from being opportunistic
Opportunities are spontaneous, but when you’re sticking to your five year plan you don’t deviate. You’re putting the blinders on. “This is where we’re going because that’s what we said!” When you don’t have a plan you can pick up on an opportunity that comes along. You’re taking the blinders off. “This is where we’re going because it makes sense today.” I’d rather stroll into the future with my blinders off.
Your mileage may vary
Of course it all depends on what you’re doing. Boeing probably needs a pretty stiff plan when building a new airplane. NASA needs to plan rocket launches many years in advance. If you want to be a doctor you’ll need a longer-term educational plan. But most businesses most of the time could benefit by just keeping their eyes open, being aware of what’s going on now, focusing on the basics that will be important to their customers today and tomorrow, and not looking too far ahead.
Benjy
on 27 Jul 07It’s just refreshing to hear somebody who doesn’t say that in 5 years they expect that they’ll have been acquired by Google/Yahoo/Microsoft…
Ugur Gundogmus
on 27 Jul 07“Constant refinement of those principals yields wonderful products.”
This is so true!Aditya
on 27 Jul 07Amazing thoughts! Every piece of advice is very inspiring one! My best is line is - “Just as we don’t much about the product we’re going to build before we build it, we don’t know much about the business opportunities before they happen.” I wish VCs read this post ;)
Ryan Bergeman
on 27 Jul 07Well said, Jason.
Baz
on 27 Jul 07Craig
on 27 Jul 07Reading this just makes me think of my favorite quote:
“I never think of the future. It comes soon enough.” Albert Einstein
He aso had another which sort of relates:
“Now he has departed from this strange world a little ahead of me. That means nothing. People like us, who believe in physics, know that the distinction between past, present, and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.”
But this is how I like to live my life. If I make a goal to reach in five years, and then I dn’t make it then I feel mad at myself. I instead focus on my immmediate future (one to two years) and then I let the rest pan itself out. I have less stress, and I think I have have a more open mind this way.
Geof Harries
on 27 Jul 07Modest words from an inspirational guy. Thanks, Jason.
Michael Van Houten
on 27 Jul 07Amen…
WD
on 27 Jul 07This makes it sound like you believe setting and attaining goals isn’t a practical method for self improvement.
While I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 5, 10, 20 years, I know what I’d like to have accomplished and what I’d like to be doing (in a very abstract way of course).
In reality, my preference is to draft a ‘master plan’ or ‘end game’, in which I envision the end result. On a day-to-day basis, I refer to that plan in a flow chart style. “Are my actions right, now supportive of the end result?” If not, change action. If so, continue.
look
on 27 Jul 07btw – an Audio version of “Getting Real” book will be perfect…
z
on 27 Jul 07@look narrated by JF, too
Robby Russell
on 27 Jul 07Well said. As an owner of a company that exclusively uses Ruby on Rails as our development platform, we’re also very mindful of the fact that Rails might not be the best solution in 5 years from now. We’re focusing more and more of our attention on Interaction Design, which we know won’t go away. :-)
I don’t like formal business plans and having a huge list of things to accomplish in the coming year(s). I’m more interested in getting the things done that need to be done today and tomorrow (and next week). We can only predict the weather so far in the future, so why do we get attached to the idea that we can predict where we’ll be in several years?
Peter Urban
on 27 Jul 07A really well put together post. This is the reality of small and medium sized businesses and it is where small business has it’s edge over medium and large companies. Enterprise size companies can’t “stroll” along because they have liabilities towards their shareholders (beware of VC), huge responsibilities towards their employees and customers and every little move they make means a significant impact on their assets. Here is where small will always win.
Another good example: About nine years ago (still back in Gemrany) we where working on something that had a lot in common with todays Basecamp. Back then I believed there was a strong need for simple online project management and collaboration that focuses on connecting and communicating instead of project accounting. I believed that people didn’t want to re-load pages for every action anymore. We didn’t have AJAX back then but we worked with WDDX and iFrames to update lists on the fly etc. etc.
Well, browsers where slow back then (a mac OS9 browser needed about 15x the time to render a list of a couple of pages out of a WDDX xml file then IE at the time, JS support was a nightmare …). We didn’t have the developers that where really able to pull it off back then and our concept was probably to complicated. Eventually the .com bubble burst, stock markets went down, clients canceled projects and and we couldn’t support the extra development efforts anymore. Plus everybody told us that what we’re doing was never going to get used by anybody…
Today people long for simple communication and collaboration oriented project management tools. They love interacting with web pages that don’t reload every time they click on something and Basecamp is a well deserved success used by thousands of paying customers.
Lesson learned.
Thx, Peter
Brad Bonham
on 27 Jul 07Amen. I think all too often we mistake 5-20 year predictions for being forward thinking and goal-oriented.
In reality, we can be extremely goal-oriented and progressively minded without rigidly setting up hoops for ourselves to jump through too far in advance to even know where they should go. I think better questions are
- What do we want to get done today? - What do we want to get done this week? - What do we want to get done this month?
And then frequently take a step back and evaluate your general direction by asking questions such as - Are we doing the kind of work we want to be doing? - Are there other possibilities we should be considering?
In reality we need a nice blend of looking to the future and moving with agility through the present, and the two perspectives should be able to dance together hand in hand. David Allen talks about this dynamic in Getting Things Done in really useful way.
condor
on 27 Jul 07well said.
Elpmis
on 27 Jul 07Hi, First thing I want to tell you is respect. This is my first comment here though I am reading your blog for quite a long time. You guys are really tremendous. You can give sense to everyones life however desperate or elate it is. This of course come from the “religion” you are confessing. The simplicity is the greatest thing in the word (upon me) and it is never too late not even hard to realize this once it comes to you. The same applies for the reality. In my opinion you are the most real company in the world. You never afraid to see the things as they are not as how everybody sees them. So keep on this and I would be pleased to show us what is “real” and what is “pretending” to be “real”.
Right, just stop killing yourself with thoughts over what you would do in the near/far future, thinking over should I buy a car, should I build a house or should I get a wife. Take your time and feel free every second of your life or you’ll get a surprise. Think real! Do not fly in the clouds. You could do whatever you want. It depends only on how hard you want that.
Respect, Elpmis
Seth Aldridge
on 27 Jul 07I like the idea of creating the page in HTML docs rather than just creating an outline. I’ve been working on an application and have been “trying” to write out what it would do for four years now. I think I’ll try mocking up some HTML tonight and see how that goes.
Great advice!
James
on 27 Jul 07“Today’s weather is the best indicator of tomorrow’s weather.”
What an utterly ridiculous comment whether you’re talking about actual weather or business. Are you proposing not thinking ahead is a good thing? This kind of attitude led to the dot.com bust and will lead to it again. Don’t sell yourselves with these bullshit ‘we’re right you’re wrong (or will be) comments’. You’re better than that and you know it.
Ethan Poole
on 27 Jul 07I once got a fortune cookie that said “Do not start something until you know how it is going to end.”
random8r
on 27 Jul 07James, that’s total crap, and it’s also not what they’re saying.
They’re saying “By paying attention to the weather constantly, you will always know what the weather is like”.
They’re not saying “The weather will always be as it is today”.
Weather is a science of patterns, but mostly it’s a study of what’s going on right now, to foretell what MAY happen later.
From a martial arts point of view, it makes no sense to fight an opponent that isn’t in the room. Why move to the left to dodge a non-existant fist? The fist has to be coming at you before you dodge it, otherwise there will be no fist there.
This is what 37Signals are stipulating. Be here now, and you will have at least SOME chance of knowing how to deal with what is going on here and now.
In other words, the practice of something is the truth of it. It’s actually Zen Buddism at its core. It says be here now, and you will know the next moment, because the next moment joins on to the present moment – in reality there are no moments, there is only now. If you are as “in” this moment as much you can be, then actually there ARE no other moments. You will appear to have “prescience” and “foresight” when these things are really simply looking at what is present.
One of my favourite statements is “The words aren’t the thing! – The THING is the thing!” and, also “When there is a difference between the map and the ground, trust the ground”.
Julian Leviston (Random8r)
Luis
on 27 Jul 07I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been asked this question in job interviews. I come to expect it, along with the various other questions they pull from whatever book these stupid questions are listed.
My way around it to to simply tell them what they want to hear: “I plan on working here and contributing more each year and making the company more and more money.”
They usually like that answer.
forrestRain
on 27 Jul 07One the the best blog post in this month, for me :)
Anindya
on 27 Jul 07Nice thoughts. But I think it’s rightly applicable for companies with small team. It just can not be generalized.
An organization with 100s or 1000s of people can not just move with “as-it-comes” attitude. Their mass is so high that they will take time and long term plan to move.
We all know that 37s is in favor of small, simple, quick yet effective solutions (which is great in it’s way), but it has to be also considered that small business can not survive without industries and to run industry you need to have a long term plan and work towards that.
Ethan Poole
on 27 Jul 07I once had a fortune cookie that said: “Do not start something until you know how to end it.”
I do not agree that just jumping into a project is exactly the best way to go about it. While I agree that extensive planning only delays the important (and fun) stuff, I think you need some planning, if only a bit of outline before you get started. You need to know where you are going!
Something as small as a mission statement may suffice for many. Personally, I prefer an outline of the key features in the software along with a description of what it is to do.
Without some common guidelines you never know when to stop. With hosted web applications this is less trouble as upgrading your programme does not require anything from the customer, but in traditional software situations issuing upgrades for software is not so easy.
I have a hard time believing you don’t have any plan while you’re developing your software.
Anonymous Coward
on 27 Jul 07It just can not be generalized
Did you read the post? The entire last paragraph acknowledges this. It says “Your mileage may vary” and “Of course it all depends on what you’re doing.”
jose
on 27 Jul 07“Just as we don’t believe in functional specs for software, we don’t believe in functional specs for companies.” Great phrase!, that´s for all the tech gurus who love speculate about the market every time.
Andrew
on 27 Jul 07I disagree with the post. You owe it to your employees and your investors to have a general idea of where you want to be in 5 or 10 years so that you have have guidance to help you make key milestone decisions down the road.
For example, there are some fundamental decisions a software dev shop has to think of… Do we want to build mass-appeal proprietary applications for ever; or do we want to build custom apps for enterprises on a project basis to see if we can scale the service / maintenance side of the business (as opposed to licensed-revenue). One option allows you to remain smaller and more nimble and probably more profitable. The other might mean you become larger and have greater revenues but lower margins.
Having a pretty clear idea of the answer to those questions helps you when you get a call from the head of IT at major financial institution telling you they want you to build a sizable custom application and are willing to engage you for a 3 year multi-MM contract.
I do agree that having a detailed revenue plan for 5 and ten years out based on broad assumptions that you can’t control is of low value; but you’d have to ask yourself if you’re really the right person to be leading the company if you can’t make sound assumptions with confidence that you can execute.
Think about Craig’sList. Classic story of the CEO/Founder who got the business to a point but didn’t have a good plan or strategy to execute. Now look at them…. Probably worth $1b
Dhrumil
on 27 Jul 07Well said…
Fred Wilson also talked about this today in regards to his firm’s twitter investment:
As we stated when we made our investment in Delicious,
The question everyone asks is “What is the business model?” To be completely and totally honest, we don’t yet know.
http://www.unionsquareventures.com/2007/07/twitter.html
orca
on 27 Jul 07Thanks Jason. Well done. Well said. One of the best manifesto on business. Thanks again for enlighting my day today.
Chas
on 28 Jul 07dont ever change
Josh A.
on 28 Jul 07@Benjy: I agree completely. A while back I read a blog post titled When is 37signals going to get acquired?. In the comments, someone said:
Richard Banfield
on 29 Jul 07As the erstwhile philosopher Mike Tyson was heard to say, “Everyone has a plan until they get hit”.
Michael Chui
on 29 Jul 07Two things:
1) Plans are useless. Planning is necessary.
2) Expecting to be somewhere is different from Wanting to be somewhere.
You shouldn’t claim to know where you’ll be in 5, 10, 50, 100 years; however, you should have a desire and a direction: if that’s as simple as, “Continue doing what we’re doing,” then that’s what it is.
Prashant
on 30 Jul 07Great Post Jason .
Seeds Of Light
on 30 Jul 07Good post! It’s not that you are without a plan, or even “anti-plan” as some have perceived. You do have a plan. Your plan is to remain open for new opportunities and focus on the things that are working now and won’t (likely) change; thus remaining “still in business”. All in all, a good strategy.
And to clear up the comment about the weather (“Today’s weather is the best indicator of tomorrow’s weather.”) that some were debating, I think it means this: Things progress slowly and gradually. Trends happen. If it’s 90 degrees and sunny today, its probably not going to snow tomorrow. The trend will continue or vary slightly. You can’t plan for the weather in 6 months, or even 5,10,20 years from now by studying the weather today.
And those of us who know God probably recognized this as a common New-Testament theme: Focus your energy on living today, because yesterday is history and tomorrow will take care of itself.
Rick C.
on 02 Aug 07If this anti-plan style works for you, go for it. Otherwise, “your mileage may vary,” as you say. The problem I’ve seen in many of the companies I’ve worked for is too little planning, too little structure. Yes, of course detailed plans and functional specs are a perfect way to kill any creativity/real results, if they’re used that way. But they’re just tools, and depend on the skills of the wielder. What I see is that without them, you’re also vulnerable to “ADD” business practices. Sales or marketing or development has the “great new idea” of the day/hour/minute and vast resources are marshalled and whipped into a frenzy of (apparent) activity… until tomorrow’s brilliant idea pops up from someone else… You get the idea. Lots of things seem to be happening, but nothing ever gets done.
Personally, I like 2 and 5 year plans… they give me a context for today, and help me respond quickly to a changing environment. I don’t have to spend too much time with “how does this new situation fit into what our mission is?” But just because I have long-range plans, it doesn’t mean I’m wed to them. They can change often—and do, based on new input. I think you can plan and remain open to new ideas at the same time. It’s hard, but no one ever said life would be easy.
This discussion is closed.