What we saw today was the spark. The explosion will continue for twenty years. We will all feel the warmth.
What we saw today was the beginning of two-decades of mobile domination by Apple. What Microsoft and Windows was to the desktop, Apple and Touch will be to mobile.
And while mobile platforms have been around for a while, they never really gained passionate traction. Palm sorta had it for a while. Windows Mobile has been getting better. RIM is the current choice for business email on the go.
But just like there were a lot of players in the portable music space, there were no clear leaders. Until Apple came to town.
The same thing is happening today in the mobile space. Palm, Windows Mobile, Blackberry, Symbian. They’ve been players, but no one has broken out big. No one has managed to grab both the business and consumer markets like Windows did on the desktop. Until Apple came to town. At least that’s my prediction.
Apple has the superior product, the big momentum, the cool, the lust, the business hooks, the consumer hooks, the customer experience, the interface, the design (interface and industrial), the smooth development environment, the vision.
And, maybe the secret key to it all, they have the commercial platform that makes it possible for a developer to actually sell, distribute, and update their software with the flip of a switch. And don’t forget the customer experience revolution — buying and it-just-works installation of iPhone software will be as one-click easy as buying music from the iTunes store. It’s all wrapped into one beautiful package. A package that only Apple can deliver.
This is brand new big shit. It all started today.
Looking for an iPhone Developer? Post an ad in the new iPhone Developer category on the Job Board.
Julian Yu-Chung Chen
on 07 Mar 08Totally agree. Anyone who is not excited because of the event today? I guess the hammered SDK download server speaks everything!
Don Wilson
on 07 Mar 08Enough of the kissing of Apple teets, share some first thoughts in the future of 37s developing apps for the iPhone.
sandofsky
on 07 Mar 08Tonight I’ll explore RubyCocoa support. If that fails, I’m willing to adopt Objective-C. That’s my level of excitement.
some guy
on 07 Mar 08really? 20 years? thanks for telling us, Nostradamus! i didn’t know you had magical clairvoyant abilities!
Yaphi
on 07 Mar 08I am with you 100%. This is going to be really big.
I cannot get my head around Objective C. Though it’s my #1 goal to at least be able to write something simple within 6 months in Cocoa.
Desperately awaiting Cocoa® Programming for Mac® OS X (3rd Edition) to come out…
AkitaOnRails
on 07 Mar 08Amem to that!
It is possible that we are dragged by the iPod’s Halo Effect here, but if there is one company in the world that is currently able to duplicate the iPod phenomenon is Apple and the iPhone is strong.
I am downloading the SDK right now and I can’t wait to learn its ways!
Many many kudos to Apple for over delivering, as usual :-)
Joe
on 07 Mar 08I love this post. Shit yes.
Jon Maddox
on 07 Mar 08I can’t agree more. I think today’s announcements are bigger than the original iPhone announcement.
AkitaOnRails
on 07 Mar 08About the comments about Objective C. Think positive: the cup is half full, not half empty: it could be way worse, it could be C++ ... argh
And when they state that they have the best framework around, this is not reality distortion field. Cocoa, compared to the rest, is the definition of ‘elegance’.
You’ll be surprised that Obj-C shares many dynamic features that we came to love about Ruby and other dynamic languages. It’s nothing like hairy C++ that’s for sure. You’ll enjoy it. And when they say they can make something like Super Monkey Ball in 2 weeks, yes, they can. And it requires no black magic to do that.
The full Xcode support is very exciting.
Kevin
on 07 Mar 08I completely agree as well. This is Apple’s second chance. While Microsoft may have won in the desktop market, the next generation of computing is upon us. After watching today’s event, more than ever I feel that mobile computing is the next big thing… perhaps even bigger than desktop computing. As you said, there’s currently no clear leader and Apple has all the pieces needed to make it to the top. This is going to be exciting.
Greg
on 07 Mar 08I would argue that the Blackberry Pearl is fairly successful for non-business users.
I constantly see teenagers using Pearls nowadays.
Russ
on 07 Mar 08I can see Mr. Jobs and Apple leveraging the iPhone in the enterprise to eventually make some headway into the enterprise desktop environment with Macs.
Seems like a no-brainer if the get good iPhone adoption.
Just like the iPod was successful in getting more consumers to replace their PCs with Macs
Matt Lee
on 07 Mar 08The problem with this I can see, is that it instantly prohibits free software/open source development for iPhone/iTouch.
Anonymous Coward
on 07 Mar 08@Matt: Developers can post free software on the App Store.
scott
on 07 Mar 08I have to say after reading the Apple sdk release on engadget, I did have the urge to learn some Objective C.
I feel it can be a gold rush for the first to market apps.Also, nice marketing Jason of your ad board. Way to take something in the news and use it for your benefit, and I don’t mean that sarcastically. It is a genuine good angle.
Frank Gilroy
on 07 Mar 08The most amazing thing about the impending mobile computing revolution is that almost nobody understands what is really about to happen.
Ricky Irvine
on 07 Mar 08Yes! BRAND NEW BIG SHIT. I am downloading the SDK and I don’t even know how to program. This is too awesome not to learn how.
Tim
on 07 Mar 08Jason, not so long ago you said that Apple’s choice to limit development on the iPhone to web apps only was a forward thinking move.
If that’s the case, you already had everything you wanted. Why the excitement now?
JF
on 07 Mar 08@Tim: I loved that Apple put the focus on web apps back then and I still love it. I still think it was a great move and it served them very well.
I suspect we’ll see plenty of new web-based apps coming out for the iPhone in the years to come. Web Apps have a special freedom that native apps don’t have—developers can do whatever they want with them. They aren’t subject to Apple’s sales rules or distribution though the App Store.
The SDK is the next (huge) step in the evolution of the platform.
Matthew Reinbold
on 07 Mar 08Granted, I’m still waiting for the proof to come from today’s marketing-produced pudding. I find the following a contradiction:
Apple’s strength has always been its closed systems. The reputation of “it-just-works” (albeit tarnished with the latest rushed OS release) is the result of managing the entire stack from hardware to software. Having developers able to build and distribute apps into that ecosystem is a good thing – but how does Apple maintain functional and aesthetic quality (which they’ve made their calling card) with any developer ‘flipping switches’ as they see fit?
And why aren’t the praises sung for Verizon’s open platform steps or Google’s Android? The allusion is made to the MP3 player market but, in fairness, Google and Verizon are much different companies than SansDisk or Creative Labs are/were.
Anonymous Coward
on 07 Mar 08but how does Apple maintain functional and aesthetic quality (which they’ve made their calling card) with any developer ‘flipping switches’ as they see fit?
Apple has to approve your app for sale on the App Store. If they don’t think it’s up to snuff it doesn’t make it. They are the gatekeepers, for better or worse.
andy
on 07 Mar 08A few things I’m not clear on.
I’m still not clear if business will be able to build intranet app’s not for public consumption and distribute them without using the itunes portal?
I’m not clear how this strategy is long term feasible if we assume that the processing power of handheld devices catches up sufficiently to a laptop? I thought the iPhone delivered the “real web” on the the device—so how is this strategy viable in the long term.
Isn’t this at the end of the day just a glorified App Launcher to a web application. Sure it’s neat that you can interface with the camera and other internal aspects of the iPhone/iTouch, but how is this really revolutionary.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Apple and the iPhone are innovators on many levels, but this seems an interesting strategy for the short term. Not clear on the long term viability. Jailbroken devices have already proved pretty functional and featured for the most part. I sure am curious to see how this plays out.
Hopefully the apps will also work on Mac’s as well since they are build on the OSX mobile platform. Personally, I’m still waiting on an 5×7 tablet version of the iPhone/iTouch.
Nathan Youngman
on 07 Mar 08Count me among the neophytes planning to dive into Objective-C and this platform. Objective-C is C & a few parts Smalltalk. Ruby is also heavily influenced by Smalltalk, esp. the Rubinius implementation. Obj-C has mixins (reopen classes), typeless “ids”. Cocoa is really well designed, often using delegation instead of subclassing, and the way Interface Builder connections tie into your code is über-slick. For those wanting to stick with Ruby, checkout what Apple is doing with MacRuby… it’s not here yet, but in time.
While we’re being clairvoyant, I expect that the iPhone will also draw more developers to Mac OS X, and Mac desktop development. A very good move on Apple’s part. Welp, the SDK is almost done installing… have fun everyone!
Nathan Youngman
on 07 Mar 08@Matthew: Applications that are functional and aesthetic will be popular, apps that don’t break any rules but just aren’t that great will be lost among all the other mediocre apps. Apple is the gatekeeper, but I think it’ll be more like a single Macupdate than the traditional iPod game selection or console situation. It’s only $99 to get onboard… they want a lot of apps!
CarlosH
on 07 Mar 08I totally agree with you Jason. Apple right now has, as you stated the momentum, is a great time for people to start seeing what apple have been doing.
I was a pc user like forever, a month ago I decided to change to Mac, and I am loving it. Don’t know why I didn’t decided this before. I guess my interaction with the iPhone made me give it a try, and now, I don’t plan to go back to windows.
Derrick Kwa
on 07 Mar 08I think there’s a good chance the iPhone will dominate. But it might not be as definite as what you’ve said. I’m personally excited about Android, and looking forward to see what they bring to the table. Could prove to be good competition.
Either way, 20 years is a long time, and it’s hard to say they will dominate for that long. Especially given how fast technology moves in today’s world.
Travis
on 07 Mar 08Great. History really does repeat itself. Microsoft Windows, the one OS to rule the last 20 years gives way to… Apple’s OSX? The one OS to rule your handset for the next 20 years?
Swell.
some guy
on 07 Mar 08let’s look at barriers to entry for developing on this platform.
(1) you have to have a mac, among the most expensive personal computers. (2) you have to have an iphone, one of the most expensive phones. that immediately eliminates at least 90% of all developers and any developer on a budget who doesn’t already have both of those components. all of this is proprietary and subject to the whims of a man who seeks out third world medicine therapies when he gets cancer instead of getting surgery.
apple has a long history of poor relations with developers. they never learned that this is why microsoft won on the desktop. there are lots of niche applications that only someone in a weird industry like insurance or small orthodontist practices would know; you can’t cover the space of applications people need with several thousand rich ubergeeks who wouldn’t want to dirty their hands with the grime that is mainstream application development which runs daily life for hundreds of millions of people.
the iphone developer community is going to be small and will produce excellent applications. it will never be huge and dominant because apple insists on always holding all the purse strings.
now, let’s look at how you actually program this stuff. i’ve never used objective-c, but if it isn’t typesafe it’s never going to gain widespread adoption, not after the rise of java and c#.
iphone and the mac will never be a majorly popular application development platform, period. it will produce cool niche apps, though.
Anonymous Coward 2
on 07 Mar 08@Anonymous: Devs can only post free apps for free after the $99 sign-up fee, based on what I’m reading.
Nick Caldwell
on 07 Mar 08“Isn’t this at the end of the day just a glorified App Launcher to a web application.”
Huh? No, it’s not. It’s a fully-fledged, native, application development environment.
M Sharp
on 07 Mar 08Apple teets are a natural source of kool-aid
Jeff Koke
on 07 Mar 08@Travis, I’m not sure what you’re saying. The iPhone is almost literally a blank slate - it’s just a big touch screen with gesture-based and tilt-based input. You’ve got a touchscreen, accelerometer, camera, microphone, stereo sound, hardware video acceleration, vibration and a keyboard - not much that you couldn’t make with that. Sounds like the perfect mobile platform.
John.B
on 07 Mar 08Marcus Cavanaugh
on 07 Mar 08I am thrilled at how well Apple has put together the SDK and development platform. It looks like it will be a great platform.
Will it dominate for 20 years? I sure hope not. I had enough of the last monopoly to be interested in yet another one.
Mobile technology will move fast: CPU speed will increase, displays will improve and resolutions will change, and the Internet will become ever faster and more available. 20 years is a long time for any SDK or product, given the increasing ubiquity of the Internet and increasing computing power.
I think Apple has a great package. But Apple holds an even more proprietary model than Microsoft, and I think we would be wary of any monopoly, especially Apple.
It’s a bit of a cache-22 for me: I love how well Apple has put together their software. But if we become locked into another proprietary system, with Apple calling the shots, we’re holding the future of our technology in one (though very competent) company.
JC
on 07 Mar 08While I’m incredibly excited about this, I hear the worries about the “monopoly”. Luckily, there is Google Android out there – and in any case, there will always be lots and lots of competitors in the phone field.
There are now, even in the portable music player world – they just don’t have the market share of the IPod.
mare
on 07 Mar 08I’m curious how this will pan out for users of iPhones (and developers) in countries were Apple doesn’t have a contract with a mobile carrier. Like half of Europe, Asia, South America, Australia and us in Canada. Will the App Store also be available in those countries? And if so, only for iPod Touch users or also for hacked iPhones. Movies and TV-shows are, even after more than a year since their introduction in the US, still almost non-existent in the iTunes Stores of other countries.
I’d love to develop for the iPhone but I can’t legally obtain one. I know I could buy an iPod Touch but it lacks some functionality.
Grant
on 07 Mar 08I had the same thoughts as I watched the broadcast today. This isn’t just “cool” this is game changing – and in several arenas.
Watching the game demos, I couldn’t help but think, “why isn’t nintendo ds like this?” they thought of wii, but couldn’t make the connection to their handheld? The iPhone, or more particularly the iPod Touch stands to be a significant gaming platform now. Just like that. Apple could have a serious stake in handheld gaming.
And not to mention all of the excited programmers who are rushing to download the SDK right now. The amazing side effect that this will have is to convert many, many programmers who never, ever considered developing for the Mac. They’ll give things a shot on the iPhone, find out they like the experience and realize that their programs could work on a Mac too with little extra work. It’s an amazing side effect that Apple will get to leverage over the next few years.
Mark Gallagher
on 07 Mar 08Type an email on an iPhone. Now do it on a Blackberry.
Rim will continue to dominate business email in the near future.
Calm down, grasshopper. iPhone will do well, but not dominate as a business tool.
Let’s check back in a year.
Jon Robinson
on 07 Mar 08@Mark,
I type emails on my iphone all day long. It is quite easy.
Your Message Here
on 07 Mar 08It’s currently March 6. There are 9+ months until Christmas. The competition has that long to knock Apple off the hill or else join Palm’s CEO at the Losers Club.
Regarding ‘some guys’ statements – nope and nope. You’ve completely missed why this is different (not to mention the invalidity of your assertions). Go back to your shareware CDs and ‘Intel Inside’ stickers and enjoy all that money that you saved.
Shawn Oster
on 07 Mar 08Two questions:
1. How long can Apple continue to present itself as an underdog, as a David to other’s Goliath? This is a key aspect of their marketing and once they dominate the mobile market that illusion has to break for even the most stalwart fanboys.
2. How long until a DOJ lawsuit against Apple for their media AND soon to be mobile monopoly? They are about to be right in the cross-hairs of the same types of idiots that started the Microsoft DOJ case. Don’t forget the gleam in Neelie Kroes’s eyes as she realizes the EU now has a solid precedent with the Microsoft case as well.
I love Apple’s focus and unwillingness to compromise but as they dominate more markets the chance that they’ll have to make decisions based on legal issues vs. customer service increases exponentially.
Oh, lastly, no way Apple will dominate mobile until they are able to offer the iPhone without a carrier lock. I would love an iPhone, but no way in the world am I going back to crappy AT&T here in Denver.
Hamranhansenhansen
on 07 Mar 08In the same way that Apple ported Safari and Mail from the Mac to the iPhone, the whole universe of third-party Mac apps is out there waiting to be ported over. Within a year there should be a pretty serious catalog of iPhone apps. Developers can sort of “rip” their Mac apps to the iPhone.
Future iPhones could have an Intel CPU easily also. The hardware has long legs. Apple can scale iPhone and iPod touch up to PC power in a straightforward way because they were originally scaled-down from the Mac, not scaled-up from a pocket calculator. The OS X in the iPhone and iPod is already 64-bit and multicore, which is more than you can say for most PC’s today.
Everybody else is way, way, way behind Apple. It’s bold to talk about 20 years but not foolish. Google hasn’t shipped a single phone. Microsoft’s software assets are HUGE, all built around Win32, and extremely low-quality, all beta or legacy, they have yet to make an impact in mobiles after 10 years. Most other companies in consumer electronics have little or no software expertise.
Apple did a lot of hard work between 1996 and 2006 that put them into a great position now. For example, they put a Unix under the Mac platform and reduced system crashes from daily or weekly to yearly. Then they moved that stability right over to the iPhone and iPod. They are way ahead and they will be for a while.
@Shawn Oster
on 07 Mar 081. Why is being an underdog a KEY aspect of their marketing? Apple is hardly the underdog in the portable music device market, yet they continue to outsell all the competition combined. This, without once singing the ‘Underdog’ theme song. I fail to see the basis for your assertion.
2. “Monopoly”. You keep using that word. I do no think it means what you think it means.
Cramer
on 07 Mar 08SDK released in time for a 3G iPhone launch in the summer. Plus direct access to Microsoft Exchange. Time to back up the truck and load up on this one.
Unkindled
on 07 Mar 08Hey, 37s, could you call Bezos and tell him to ditch the Kindle and move the whole ebook business over to an Touch application? Thanks in advance.
allan branch
on 07 Mar 08Jason, would you like to purchase my apple shares at 168 where I purchased them 2 months ago? You’d be doing me a big favor, my wife is pissed.
- JK, Apple, I’ll always love you…
@Shawn Oster
on 07 Mar 08Get an iPodTouch then.
Shawn Oster
on 07 Mar 08@Commenter that addressed me without leaving name:
1. A big part of Apple’s marketing is that it’s “Not Microsoft” and one aspect people associate with Microsoft is of being an “Evil Monopoly”, just look at the Mac TV commercials or any Jobs keynote. For many years they’ve also cultivated this “art haus” persona of being for the artists, musicians, videographers which directly taps into the gestalt of not being a drone, not selling out, of being small, agile and independent. There was a great article awhile back discussing the underdog angle in marketing and Apple was one of the primary examples. Ask any marketing or psych grad and they can explain it much better than I.
2. I use the word “Monopoly” in the same context as people refer to Microsoft. Microsoft also was never a true monopoly as defined by Webster yet most people associate the concept of a company being more than 80% dominate in a market to be “as good as a monopoly”. I’m using the current social connotation vs. the denotation of the word.
What I’m doing is drawing parallels between Microsoft in the OS and Office Suite space to Apple in the media and now mobile market. Just as Microsoft ran aground on anti-trust issues so will Apple and ironically it will be the same lawsuits that Apple fanboys cheered for that get used as precedents against Apple. Microsoft was never a monopoly yet it got treated like one.
some guy
on 07 Mar 08Erm, saying “nope” to what I said doesn’t constitute rebutting it.
I said nothing about what I personally would do, I’m talking about what people who know how to write code will do. Is the iPhone so good to develop on that you should drop $1500-2500 to be able to develop on it? Most people will answer “no”. There are millions of Java, VB, C++, etc. people that Apple needs to engage if it wants to have tons and tons of apps on its platform. That’s the point: there are going to be a small number of excellent apps that overall don’t matter much, just like on the Mac.
Now, if you want to actually present some facts or reasoning as to why this is incorrect, feel free to chime in. Otherwise you look like yet another unthinking Mac cult retard.
I personally am willing to pay for quality, which is why I have a fast computer, decently large monitors, a 160 GB iPod, a sizable book collection, and other things that are at least somewhat premium and if I were going to develop mobile software I wouldn’t dream of using anything but the iPhone.
@Shawn Oster
on 07 Mar 08http://waffle.wootest.net/2008/03/06/iphone-sdk-scorecard-2/
Regarding #2:
The word you’re thinking of is hegemony – which is the correct term for MSFT’s dominance.
Take a look at the scorecard and you’ll find that developers are free to keep their applications open-sourced and distribute it with Apple for free.
You’ll find that as long as media can be used outside the iPhone – that Apple won’t be sued for anti-trust issues. There was a lawsuit a while back for the same issue re: iPod and files. The iPod allowed you to import media and also export/burn any purchased music to CD. The same can be said for apps here. Developers are free to port/use their apps in other places elsewhere.
@some guy
on 07 Mar 08An iphone simulator is included with the SDK, so having a device is optional, but there’s nothing like the real thing.
d0k
on 07 Mar 08and this is why you should never rush to post something when you are too excited: you read it the next day and it just sounds ridiculous.
wait until Apple patents ‘the pinch’ and then they will have the ultimate customer hooks.
Chris Kenny
on 07 Mar 08If you’re a Windows-based hobbyist developer? Probably not. If you’re a professional developer in the mobile applications space, or looking to move into it? Hell yes!
The day Apple ships the 2.0 update enabling third-party apps, the iPod Touch and iPhone will constitute the dominant mobile applications platform. There are other platforms out there that ship more units, but only if one uses an essentially meaningless definition of “platform”. Other mobile platforms tend to be heavily fragmented, technically primitive, and often aren’t even recognized by their users as actual software platforms. (For instance, I doubt most users with J2ME-enabled phones really think of their phones as software platforms. They’ve never installed any software, unless maybe it was a game from the selection of five that their carrier offers.)
John Topley
on 07 Mar 08It also opens up the exciting possibility of native apps communicating with web apps via an API.
Peter Pan
on 07 Mar 08@Marcus Cavanaugh and others:
When you sit in your BMW or Mercedez, do you also mind for the proprietary technology you are using? The monopoly of part supply? Or do you just enjoy the driving experience?
I don’t mind whether Apple will dominate or not. It has been a wonderful niche in the past (for those to believe in niche markets like me) & will be a wonderful whatsoever viable technology platform in the future… and a pretty cool one as well ;-))
Rob
on 07 Mar 08Shawn I don’t believe Monopoly’s are illegal if they are developed “naturally”.
Microsoft got busted by the DOJ and the EU for Anti-Trust violations because they used illegal business practices to create and extend monopoly’s in many areas of business.
If you have a legal monopoly in one area of business it is illegal to leverage that monopoly to create another monopoly in another area of business. Basically MS had a monopoly in desktop os software. Netscape was the market leader in Internet browsers and MS leveraged their os monopoly and gave away Internet Explorer for free creating a monopoly (for a time) in the browser business and putting Netscape out of business for all intents and purposes. That’s illegal.
It’s perfectly legal for apple to have a “monopoly” in MP3 players and enter the mobile phone and mobile computing markets. If apple gave away free mobile phones to all ipod owners and took over the mobile phone business that would be illegal.
So long as Apple never gets busted for anti-competitive business practices in the first place they can get away with a lot.
Because Microsoft have been convicted by a court of law for illegal business practices and abuse of the legal operating system monopoly EVERYTHING they now do is measured against a different set of rules that only apply to convicted anti-trust violators.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-trust
Tim Burks
on 07 Mar 08Regarding Ruby and Objective-C:
I spent a lot of time looking at the combination of Ruby and Objective-C. Starting at the beginning of 2005, I built the RubyCocoa Resources site and later wrote my own bridge from scratch, RubyObjC. Eventually I decided that ultimately, the best way to put a scripting layer on Objective-C was to write one that was specifically designed for the job. Last year I did that, and this afternoon I got it working on the iPhone.)
Chad Crowell
on 07 Mar 08I love it when i’m right, even if my timing was wrong.
another guy
on 07 Mar 08I’m with ‘some guy’...20 years?
first of all, windows didn’t really grab hold of the market until windows 95 which was much less than 20 years ago.
secondly, do you remember where we were in the US merely 10 years ago? most people didn’t have cell phones until AT&T launched their nationwide plan with the Nokia 6160 in July 1998. less than 10 years ago.
technological progress happens at an exponential rate…Apple might have 5 years of dominance max. which would be alot. and they might do it – the iPhone is pretty kickass. but 20 years? no way.
Andy Davies
on 07 Mar 08See that’s where I think you’re wrong, the average consumer isn’t willing to pony up the price of an iPhone along with it’s expensive call plans.
In Europe and many other markets we’re used to getting our phones free on contract, and cheap for pay-as-you-go.
Ideas from the iPhone (and the other touchscreen phones) might become more popular but Apple aren’t going to dominate the market
BJ Nemeth
on 07 Mar 08@Rob: Excellent explanation of monopolies and anti-trust cases. Most people completely misunderstand why Microsoft got in trouble. There is nothing illegal about a naturally formed monopoly.
Oh, and the situation everyone is describing for Apple is not a monopoly. (Not in the way they’re thinking, anyway.)
Not Bill or Steve
on 07 Mar 08The ‘Apple is/will become a monopoly’ discussion is a non-starter. Inigo Montoya had it right.
Regarding the cost of Macs, iPhones, development, etc. – this is likewise a pointless discussion. Apple is not the low-cost source for computing. Nor are they necessarily the high-cost source in most cases. Their products cost what the market will bear for the value they provide, which is considerable given their overall satisfaction scores.
If you want low-cost, go develop your apps for WinCE. After all, it has been around for a half-decade now and certainly as good, if not better, than anything Apple could possibly come up with, right? And hey, look at that market-share!
Jon Gilkison
on 07 Mar 08You have to be totally high to think that today was some huge step forward for mobile.
All Apple did today was proclaim that it’s users are children and it’s going to treat them like such by having such a locked down hardware platform and orwellian application deployment scheme.
It’s one thing to say, “We’re going to vet the applications we put on the store” and it’s an entirely other thing to say that all applications must be sold through said store. The excuse they use is lame beyond reconciliation.
Rim, Palm, Windows Mobile, et al. all have open development platforms and none of the issues Jobs blabbered on about protecting iphone users from. Could you imagine them doing the same thing for OS X on the desktop? Of course not, so why are you swallowing this up so easy just because we’re talking about a cell phone?
I’m sure it’ll be successful for them though, but a pain in the ass for developers. And what’s the story for open source here?
I love my Mac Pro, but I really feel like Apple thinks your too stupid to handle your own business. And they have ages to go before they tap any kind of enterprise market. A six year old could out sms an iphone user on a blackberry, so sell me again why the interface is so great for day to day enterprise use?
Oh because it looks like candy. And children love candy.
I’m not trying to troll, but I can’t be the only person thinking that this post is nothing more than fanboy ejaculate?
@Jon Gilkison
on 07 Mar 08“I’m not trying to troll…”
”...but I play one on the Internets.”
“And they have ages to go before they tap any kind of enterprise market.”
Will you be around in September to stand by that statement?
And what, pray tell, is your idea of an ideal mobile user/developer platform? How’s it doing these days?
AdamC
on 07 Mar 08Jon, I love my candy and the company that supplies me the candy controls the widget in other words they can make it tastier than others (imho). But if you don’t like my brand of candy, well, buy other brands. Its a free world, you do your things we do ours, no point getting upset.
Niket Patel
on 07 Mar 08I was alway in impression, 37s people live in present and avoid to make assumption about failure or success based on some future prediction. Weirdo, They started making predictions.
Making predictions of far future and then followup argument , counter arguments are always good time pass. but not useful to anyone.
Say, something that going to happen in 6-12 month. 20 years is long time in all sense.
John Peters
on 07 Mar 08Great for business users and uber geeks, but not for 90% of the users out there. Apple products will always be focused at the top end of the market.
nexusprime
on 07 Mar 08I work at a company where we’re a Microsoft Gold Certified Partner.
Yet, half our developers use dual-booting MBPs for their portable machines, two have iPhones (we’re in NZ, so have to ship them out and jailbreak em), and all but one use iPods.
You’re smoking something if you don’t think Apple is going to get even bigger. Every one of us who does not yet have one is getting an iPhone for our next phones, this announcement (with the MS Exchange integration) pretty much made that a given.
Windows Mobile my ass, man. This is the superior platform, with the SDK release they’ve just hit the ball out of the park.
Watch for mass firings at the mobile team over in Redmond…
I feel bad for them but seriously…They had such a head start, and its still a piece of crap.
-n (Company Name Withheld)
John Topley
on 07 Mar 08Actually, Windows took off in 1990 with the release of Windows 3.0.
Josh A.
on 07 Mar 08Wow, you’re confident
Eduardo Sasso
on 07 Mar 08Sometimes i wonder my self, how can apple be so superior then others? Do they make Rocket Science? No! They just give tremendous attention to the little details like design and usability…
Congrats once again to apple, an inspiring company
Thomas
on 07 Mar 08Jep, it looks great and will be if all the tools, processes work absolutely flawlessly. Lets hope for the best :)
AkitaOnRails
on 07 Mar 08It is always a roulette game to try to predict the future. Sometimes though there are a lot of circunstances that let us compelled to try.
I would highly recommend Daniel Eran’s extensive and comprehensive analysis of exactly this: Why the iPhone will succeed.
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/03/07/apples-iphone-vs-smartphone-software-makers/
Anonymous Coward
on 07 Mar 08See that’s where I think you’re wrong, the average consumer isn’t willing to pony up the price of an iPhone along with it’s expensive call plans.
That’s where I think you are shortsighted. Today we have one expensiveish iPhone model. Just like when the iPod launched. One expensiveish iPod.
Just wait. The Touch platform will go downmarket and Touch will be everywhere.
Darren
on 07 Mar 08Has anyone actually been able to download the bleedy SDK yet? I have been trying since yesterday and just keep on getting the try and later message. Real poor show of apple to not have dealt with this. They must of known every developer on the planet with a mac would want to have a go at it.
I look forward to it and brushing up on my C again.
Jeff Hartman
on 07 Mar 08I don’t see why some of you are bellyaching that it is too expensive to develop for the iPhone.
If you develop a nice app and it sells well, you recoup your money with no problem. It’s called an investment. Don’t be so shortsighted.
But seriously, isn’t the cost of Apple equipment getting a bit old? Just over a thousand bucks gets you everything you need to get started. Go to eBay or craigslist and you can get started for less.
The biggest barrier to entry for you is your line of thinking and that’s the worst place to be if you have any intentions to develop for this market.
Ted T.
on 07 Mar 08@andy: “I’m still not clear if business will be able to build intranet app’s not for public consumption and distribute them without using the itunes portal?” This was asked during the Q&A—the answer is yes, although they are still working out the details.
@Some Guy: “Is the iPhone so good to develop on that you should drop $1500-2500 to be able to develop on it?” A MacMini is $600 (less if bought refurbed or used) and is more than powerful enough to use as a development system. Any developer who isn’t willing/able to drop $600, isn’t worth much, nor is s/he the one going to be writing the specialized mobile apps the orthodontist needs.
Apple’s Dev. tools are free—MS. Visual Studio Standard Ed. is $270 at Amazon. Remind me again how it’s cheaper to develop on Windows?
Tiffani
on 07 Mar 08@Matthew R.
I don’t think Google will be getting the kind of attention the iPhone will (or at least not anymore) because what they’ve produced isn’t something that you can hold in your hand and basically see on an actual device. The iPhone SDK may definitely have its limitations, but at least it’s something groundbreaking we can work with NOW. It’s not code on a circuit board demo at a far-flung conference most of us will never go to.
I’m excited by the possibilities both companies offer, honestly. But, it’s a matter of how folks are tired of waiting on incremental change when it comes to the mobile world. After having to write code for a J2ME-enabled (more like disabled) phone, it’s refreshing to be able to write code for a gorgeous interface with APIs that are commensurate with the capabilities of the device (for the most part).
Evan
on 07 Mar 08I’m probably just delusional here but “some guy” sounds suspiciously like a professor I used to have who taught design patterns.
Anyways, hooray – a shiny, cool SDK on a shiny platform I can’t justify spending the money for. You can talk about the merits of good design, which this probably exemplifies, but I don’t think good design has to be this expensive all the time.
luke
on 07 Mar 08Proprietary and monopoly are two different things Apple has proprietary technology yes… but it sure isn’t a monopoly like MS windows is/was there are other choices and that makes Apple not a monopoly, how can a monopolistic company write and preinstall software that allows you to install the “competing” OS on your Mac?? that’s not a monopoly . The same goes for everything else they do, look at iTunes. you are not limited nor forced to use iTunes to purchase music for your ipod, for example the format used on the ipod is a standard , unlike MS that create their own “standards” and make it’s software not compatible with other real standards to purposely force people to use it and propagate .. Now with the SDK Apple wants to keep people from writing nasty stuff s it gives you 2 option , register like a serious developer with good intentions or develop browser apps and choice #2 continue writing virii and trojans for the windows platform
luke
on 07 Mar 08the damn servers are so busy , I have been trying for hours to download the sdk
Michael Long
on 07 Mar 08I think it’s worth pointing out that the real innovation here is the “App Store”. By providing developers with an audience willing and able-and required-to actually pay for their software, Apple is going to encourage an avalanche of applications for the iPhone platform.
See: Apple’s Application Store
mark
on 07 Mar 08Some people really get it, see the vision, are first out of the gate to invest, and reap the profits. Many other people will keep the blinders on, and won’t be convinced until it’s already happened and in full swing. Then they’ll capitulate and straggle in. That’s life.
Agree that Apple has established a huge lead, and with more software and cheaper devices on its way, the Touch platform will grow and dominate for at least 10 years, or until the next platform arrives.
innhitman
on 07 Mar 08This announcement surpassed (probably) ANYONE’S expectations and makes the ‘Superman’ dunk by Dwight Howard in this year’s slam dunk contest look ‘old’.
The game is over.
Rod
on 07 Mar 08I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the effect this will have on AT&T. Yes, the SDK is nice, but the most important announcement yesterday was Apple serving notice to the mobile carriers that they (Apple) are taking over the mobile apps discovery, validation, deployment and payment process. The byzantine adventure of getting a mobile app acceptable to a carrier, followed by getting it on their app deck, getting consumers to notice it, and finally persuading them to buy it has been suffocating the mobile apps business since it began. Combined with the ridiculous (albeit exciting) variety of platforms, getting a mobile business off the ground has been a challenge.
No, the real significance of the iPhone SDK is it’s a single platform for both the iPhone and the Touch, and unless the Apps store is significantly different at release from what we saw yesterday, Apple has done for mobile apps what it did for music. You can be certain that once the iPhone starts to dominate the smartphone space they’ll start going downmarket, and I’m betting the mobile OS X platform will remain consistent across devices. Finally, the carriers have been told that in the future they’re just data pipes, and their ‘innovations’ with mobile apps are no longer necessary.
Mister Snitch!
on 07 Mar 08I agree with this post completely, in fact I had posted a similar piece myself yesterday. And twenty years of cell-phone dominance is as good an estimate as any.
As the iPhone platform takes off, Windows will be long in the tooth and Vista will continue to struggle. Open-source Linux systems will carve out a larger niche. Apple’s dominance of this space will, in memory, seem to dwarf Windows one-time dominance. Apple the New Microsoft, or the New Google if you prefer. But consider this: The iPhone was built atop Apple’s expertise in computers and iPods. What will be built atop their expertise in iPhones?
While Apple’s Windows-like dominance of this space is hard for many to imagine, something even harder to imagine lies ahead. Probably even Apple does not know what this is. But it might be fun to speculate…
Mike
on 07 Mar 08@Jason: Apple has the business hooks
You’re joking, right? Have you been in a corporate IT department lately? Apple has no foothold in the corporate IT market because IT doesn’t want to support multiple platforms and want to minimize the number of vendors they deal with.
DaveyJJ
on 07 Mar 08“See that’s where I think you’re wrong, the average consumer isn’t willing to pony up the price of an iPhone along with it’s expensive call plans.”
Andy, you’re missing the point. You specifically say “iPhone.” Like when the anti-Apple media says iTunes music “only works on an iPod” when they mean an iPod, any Apple or Windows computer running iTunes, some Motorola phones, etc.
This SDK means I can make apps for the iPhone, iPod Touch (far far more expensive and already millions being used which counters the “too expensive” arguement you’ve put forth), and the myriad of future handheld Apple hardware that will use the touch technology.
That’s where the 20+ year prediction makes me giddy with anticipation. I’m porting several of my Widget Monkey widgets to the iPhone and iPod Touch, and have already had two Objective-C developers contact me about four two week games I have the art done for.
I for one am looking forward to the next 20 years. :-)
DaveyJJ
on 07 Mar 08I meant to say that the iPod Touch is far far LESS expensive than the iPhone. My bad fingers.
Stacy
on 07 Mar 08I remember when the Mac first hit the seen. It was all the coolness of iPhone today. However, it was also at a high price point, a price umbrella. Jobs wants to be the high price cool gadget and feels to keep it “cool” he has to control everything and be the gatekeeper.
It’s just a matter of time before competitors dip under his umbrella and get the lion’s share of the market. Things will get practical very fast. This can be a 20-yr run only as a niche product, just like the Mac of today is. Competitors will do a Win-95 copy on this and runnaway with the profilts. And it just might deliver the richest person in the world (again).
Computing wants to be free and not subject to artificial restraints like gatekeepers. And it will be.
mattdono
on 07 Mar 08Good post and comments.
To me, this announcement makes it all-the-more-curious as to why Apple would have picked only 1 mobile carrier - and the crappiest carrier (in most consumer surveys) at that - to introduce iPhone.
Apple would have had -hmm, I dunno- double or triple the numbers that they have if they would have at least launched it with 2 carriers.
(And, I know that there are explanations as to why Apple went only with ATT/Cinglewire. But, they still sound like excuses to me).
The only real explanation that makes sense to me, is one that I haven’t really heard (though I’m not espousing this as my novel idea). But, the “creep-n-seep” approach seems to be what Apple has done. By the time competitors figure out the strategy, demand is high and they have cornered the space.
This makes sense because: 1. Apple’s pretty tricky like that 2. Less is more fits Apple’s philosophy Less availability/supply + increased interest/demand = higher price (or same price and many more units)
For me: The day that my mobile carrier announces that they will carry iPhone, will be the day that Apple will sell at least 3 more units. So, the above explanation fits me well.
So, that would sort of explain why they went with 1 carrier.
But, ATT/Cinglewire? Still just don’t understand that.
James
on 07 Mar 08It’s funny how again Apple has done something already being done better (arguably, I suppose) by someone else (Android), and is immediately eliciting the highest of praises. It might mean a little more if this blog had ever posted something other than complete and unyielding Apple love.
Mike
on 07 Mar 08@James: It might mean a little more if this blog had ever posted something other than complete and unyielding Apple love.
I totally agree. If I see one more post by DHH about him and his girlfriend’s matching Airs, I’ll scream. 37s is worse shills for Apple than David Pogue.
Steve McDonald
on 07 Mar 08I can only be happy that the mobile market is large enough to accomodate all of these devices and technologies. Think about it! In what other industry can a company with such a small marketshare foothold overall create such buzz? Them be the facts!
As per the details, predicting the next 20 years is completely rediculous. You are totally leaving out the number of devices that already exist. As well you are completely confusing OS, platform tools and devices. iPhone is a buzz and will have to get open to more development to be the breakaway that you are predicting! Think about the fact that the world market of developers in a uncountable majority have NEVER EVEN TOUCHED A MAC! I am not saying they shouldn’t go ahead and experience it and have educated opinions, I just think this pay-to-play API is not much more than Apple preaching to a choir of fanatical fanboys.
I will stand behind this statement: iPhone won’t really break away in terms of being truly competative until it opens up development, and that means to stuff like Java, Adobe Flash, Adobe Air, and other more dominant languages. Once that happens, I think it will have more of a chance. Until then (and as far as I am concerned, I wouldn’t buy in until it atleast played super-well with Flash which unquestionably has a deathgrip hold on the usability-interactive future) let the fanboys celebrate their step backward toward more closed and antiquated development and deployment schemes. Welcome to your limited experience!
Tru Believer
on 07 Mar 08It’s “too expensive” to develop for the iPhone? Because you must buy one first? Ridiculous. I suppose it’s unfair that you’re not allowed to write Vista apps on a VT100.
Microsoft is, in fact, a monopoly. It has been convicted many times of abusing it’s monopoly powers and has paid billions of dollars in fines.
The iPod ecosystem may possibly be a monopoly, or become one. But until Apple uses that market position to engage in illegal business practices, there is no comparison to Microsoft’s egregious assault on competition and innovation.
I don’t think the iPhone SDK is “bigger than the PC”, but rather the next logical step toward an ever-expanding ecosystem of products and services that only Apple will be able to provide.
Pat L
on 07 Mar 08Unless I am missing something, the future of web 2.0 apps on iPhone is not looking too bright. Especially as this site, a primarily web 2.0 community, is excited about downloading the iPhone SDK. Isn’t that the exact opposite of what most web 2.0 app developers would want to do?
Alex
on 07 Mar 08Here’s my prediction:
No one company will dominate the mobile market and this is not “the beginning of two-decades of mobile domination by Apple”.
The OS X Touch based devices will continue to sell well in the US and this application platform will be successful.
Apple’s mobile devices will not sell well outside of North America and a few European countries.
Other companies will sell their Android or propriety OS based devices unlocked, and for significantly cheaper prices.
Android will attract far more developers because it uses Java (millions of programmers already), the SDK is cross-platform (not just Intel Mac), their are no fees and they get to keep all the revenue.
All the devices will have generally the same features and users won’t care what OS they are using.
Android will eventually command the higher worldwide market share.
Apple, Samsung, Motorola and others will make a lot of money.
jjudge
on 07 Mar 08i can’t take it anymore, i’m finally going to buy an iphone. there’s some great stuff here.
one thing that i found annoying about the keynote is that the enterprise integration is being pitched as if it’s never been done well before. RIM nailed this a long time ago (ask any entreprise IT person that manages it). the way it’s being presented is sort of like – OMG, this is amazing! “wow, i added a meeting on my laptop, and it shows up on my phone!” every enterprise using blackberries has had this ability for several years.
also wanted to comment about consumer adoption of the blackberry. when i’m riding the el, i’m amazed at the number of non-corporate people i see checking email and texting with their blackberries. there is plenty of penetration.
finally, apple we’ll need to drop exclusivety with AT&T to pick up enterprise in roads, there’s no way around it. t-mobile has a huge percentage of the entreprise BB market.
Anonymous Coward
on 07 Mar 08When Apple announced that their SDK was the web, 37S seemed to love the idea and felt it was fwd thinking. Now that an SDK is in MACOS fahion, what does 37S think? Even better or worse…since essentially it forces you guys to develop desktop-like apps for the iphone?
Anonymous Coward
on 07 Mar 08Update to my previous question. Of course 37S doesn’t have to do anything. Its more of an innocent question trying to see if you guys would extend your apps for pure web based apps to non-web apps: iphone, laptops, etcs….
Dan
on 07 Mar 08AkitaOnRails
on 07 Mar 08Some people tend to confuse the word “Monopoly”.
Being the market leader is hardly enough to be considered a monopoly.
Monopolistic acts are when you force hardware makers to license your software and your software alone or otherwise you’ll retaliate in some way. That’s the kind of contract Microsoft had with PC makers back in the 90’s and one of the reasons that led to the DOJ anti-trust case.
Apple has a growing market share in the media market because of competence alone. Or you will tell me that Apple is using abusive actions against the holy mighty Record Industry and Holywood to choose their iTunes Store primarily?
Or Apple is forcing them not to partner with Microsoft in PlaysForSure? Or Apple is forcing AT&T to never pick an Android based phone?
That would be monopolistic.
The world is a different place now, the IT market is much more mature than it was back in the 80’s. No one will sign ‘exclusive’ contracts out of nowhere.
If the iPod has more than 150 million consumers it has to be by competence alone. Otherwise you would have to argue that Apple made it impossible for them to choose anything else. Or you might summon the dared Reality Distortion Field and say that 150 million people are delusional since 2001.
Or you have to say that iPhone canibalized in monopolistic ways RIM, Palm and the other players instead of deducing the obvious: their previous generation phones sux big time! And the iPhone did all their homework, and they are improving their platform over very short periods of time. It’s less than a year and compare the first version with what we have. Picture June when the App Store goes public.
So, this is no where near Monopolistic. It is very hard nowadays for someone to play Bill Gates once again. And the mobile space feels like the digital music arena of 2001: some players but not were real leaders. Big numbers, yes. Visionary, none. Apple is filling this gap in an extraordinary way.
Again, I recommend Daniel Eran series of articles at RoughlyDrafted.com blog. They explain this in a LOT of details, and unravel all those sensationalist myths.
Akita
on 07 Mar 08I will stand behind this statement: iPhone won’t really break away in terms of being truly competative until it opens up development, and that means to stuff like Java, Adobe Flash, Adobe Air, and other more dominant languages.
That’s the one move that Apple should not make, not in the next couple of months at least. This is like shooting on your own feet.
This kind of stuff accounts for a flood of very low level quality apps that hides the real gems. The user experience gets nasty to the level of Palm: thousands of apps, only a handful of real real useful ones.
Hope they never add Flash to the iPhone. It’s pointless. You want rich apps, you have native apps. You want video, you have H.264. You need audio, you have the full iPod. You websites, there’s XHTML+CSS+JS. When HTML5 is ready, there’s gonna be even less reason for Flash. Flash is annoying and has very low value. Just because it entertains you, doesn’t mean it should be ubiquitous. Same thing for Java. Why Java? Why would I want another wrapper instead of writing directly to the real thing? Obj-C is good enough and with a feature-rich set of frameworks and libraries. We don’t need no sub-par Java in the iPhone. Keep it at the server-side where it belongs.
PE
on 07 Mar 08Is this a parody? Because it reads just like the fake Steve Jobs post on the same topic.
hrvl
on 07 Mar 08it feels like “some guy” is the only reasonable voice in all this chitchat. good release, though. I’m curious to see how will Android introduction impact this..
Crucher
on 07 Mar 08Wow … there are some heated opinions in here.
hrvl: If you think some guy is onto something, I want what you guys are smokin’.
I wish well for Android, but comparing that to what Apple just did is nuts. I don’t buy the “20 year dominance’ scenario, but if any of you think there will be a hardware device in the next 3 years that touches what the iPhone is right now, you’re deluding yourselves. There is zero per cent chance that a company will be able to replicate the user experience of the iPhone with both hardware and software in the next few years, if not longer.
If you question that statement, I’ll bet my lunchbox you have not used an iPhone for any length of time.
Bruizer
on 07 Mar 08I tend to agree with much of what you say. 20 years??? Maybe not but the next 5 will give RIM a serious run for their money and WM will slowly go away. There are many people posting here that really do not get the picture of real world application development (such as “Some Guy” IMO).
Having done Java, C# and Obj-C, I will take the amazing dynamism of Obj-C and open typing any day of the week. To me, strict typing of Objects is a serious design flaw in any object oriented language. After using Obj-C, both Java and C# really feel like second class languages, but that is me; I am sure many will differ.
The iPod Touch/iPhone platform (I see this more from the iPod Touch side) offers an SDK that far outstrips anything I have used for embedded/mobil devices. Even if you only attract 1/20 the number of developers, the rich and dynamic Obj-C environment combined with IB will allow them to be 2000% (and I am serious on that number) more productive.
For the first time, designing mobile apps is fast, easy and efficient. I had my first simple app going in about 4 hours and it is already a useful tool for tracking all of my hours to various jobs/charge numbers. Automatically downloading this to the calendar interface and syncing with my desktop for billing. NOTE: with IB going, this would have only taken an hour or two.
SWEET!!!!
Matt Lee
on 08 Mar 08@Anonymous: No, developers can choose to not charge for their software but that is not the same as free software/open source.
If I want to distribute software for iPhone, I have to use this App Store. If I want to distribute my software with available source code and give my users the right to modify, study, change and distribute copies of the software, they can’t. At best, they might be able to look at how it works, but they can’t load a modified version onto their iPod, they can’t share it with anyone and they can’t distribute it.
In short, Apple is making the same kind of proprietary actions as Microsoft did, whilst the likes of Sun, Google, IBM, Nokia and Joyent are making steps to be more open and give their users freedom.
Anonymous Coward
on 08 Mar 08“Computing wants to be free…”
Uh huh.
Andrej Ravnikar
on 08 Mar 08This is one of the best post I have ever read. Could not agree more.
GadgetGav
on 08 Mar 08How about you meet your own standards of ‘presenting some facts’..? Your first assertion is just wrong. Yes, you can get cheaper Windows machines than Macs, but if you spec them like-for-like, they come out the same. I did exactly this with 20in widescreen Core2Duo systems for CAD. Even including the Windows license to dual boot the Mac, the Mac was around $100 more. Without buying Windows it was cheaper. If you get the Mac and a retail copy of Windows, you’ve got a system that can run in two OSs equally well. Secondly, where are the ‘facts’ you seem so keen on to back up that 90% number..?
I’m sorry. Did you just say that Insurance and Dentistry were weird, niche industries..??
You think a relatively small group of people producing excellent applications is a bad thing..?? Have you seen the sales of the iPhone since it was launched..? Yes, it’s an expensive handset. Yes, up to now it hasn’t had good business support. But it’s still sold well. Once there are some excellent applications available and once the Active Sync removes one of the biggest barriers to corporate acceptance, that will only improve. And all this despite it’s high retail cost. There’s an old saying “You get what you pay for” and that can be true. I wouldn’t trade my iPhone for a FREE Razr V3. I had plenty of free or shareware apps on my WinMobile PDA, but it was unreliable and a pain in the @$$ to use… I’d much rather have the small group making excellent apps thanks.
Hmmm, do you think Apple might be basing their iPhone business model on their iPod one..? Do you think that will be a bad thing..?
You’re starting to sound a lot like Ed Colligan at the end of ‘06 when he said “We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone,” he said. “PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” That’s the difference you see. Apple does all the struggling behind closed doors and doesn’t come to market until they’ve got something more than “decent”. If the same happens with third party apps, that won’t be a bad thing. Have you seen the quality of most indie Mac developers’ software…? Bringing stuff from that community to the iPhone will result in a cycle of improvements where the apps increase market share of the phone, then increased sales of the phone bring in more developers. Compare that to the tailspin that Palm is in. They currently try to support two different OSs, they cancelled their palmtop platform and the “PC guys” did just “walk in” on their phone market.
GadgetGav
on 08 Mar 08@Matt Lee,
If you want to give away your software source code you could. People would have to pay the $99 fee to be able to send the code to their phones, but that might happen. A one time fee to be able to send anyone’s app code to my phone..? I’d consider it. Anyone who wants to try developing their own apps would have that anyway and their likely to be the kind of people who would care about truly open source software. Regular users would be happy to have the free app through the App Store without ever seeing the source code.
Sam
on 08 Mar 08Please. RIM, Palmsource, Windows, Linux will just come out with their own versions for hundreds cheaper. And like how the way overpriced Macintosh was crushed since the mid-80s, so too will the iGodPhone.
nimbus
on 08 Mar 08@Sam
Like they did with the iPod? Good going you dumbass twit.
Stacy
on 08 Mar 08The iPod market penetration can’t be directly compared to the iPhone like people are trying to do here. Prior to its release, Jobs had cut many deals with the record labels to offer their cateloge music for $0.99/song.
So if any competitor wanted to copy the iPod and offer it for a lower price, they would have had to cut similar deals with the record companies to be a viable competitor. So it would have taken more than a slick iPod knock off to compete with Apple.
Ususally when these kind of deals are cut for the first time, there’s some exclusivity involved. Therefore, another competitor probably couldn’t get the same deal like Jobs had. Now when the exclusivity expired, it was too late for others because the iPod was a huge hit right out of the box and it got dominant market share. Even Jobs said he was surprized by the instant success.
Of course now, the record companies would love for an iPod competitor to emerge because Jobs has them by the balls. But people don’t want to take a risk trying to knock off a 90% share competitor.
The iPhone has no back-end competitive advantage like the iPod had. In fact, you can say it has a disadvantage being with ATT only, etc. Therefore, the notion of a 20-yr run is ridiculous.
Afternoon
on 09 Mar 08About 28m people in the UK just want to use their phone as a phone according to Continental Research. This segment will shrink, but will probably take 20 years to do so. This is probably typical of the western countries. In the developing world, successful handsets are several orders of magnitude cheaper than iPhone and sometimes have features even neater than wifi or multi-touch, like built-in torches. It is in the developing world that the next 2 billion mobile customers will enter the marketplace over the 20 years. These people are unlikely to be buying iPhones.
I’m sure Apple will put out some sexy kit, but their products are out of the range of probably 90-95% of mobile users. Nokia will continue to feature very strongly and the Chinese manufacturers will grow stake very quickly. IMHO Apple will no more dominate than Porsche dominate the car industry.
richs
on 09 Mar 08@Stacy – iPods dominated by being a better, inegrated product. The vast majority of music on Ipods is from CD’s not the 99¢ deal Jobs got.
@ Afternoon – yes there are cheaper cell phones and there will always be cheaper cell phones. This is a highly mobile computer that happens to have a cell phone as one of it’s major apps. If you look at it like that, the competitive landscape changes considerably.
cubiclegrrl
on 09 Mar 08I’m pretty much with Shawn Oster on the AT&T dimension. The only good thing I can say about that company is that I dropped them for their high-handed attitude long before they sold their customers out to the NSA.
I’m a programmer, which means an incorrigible tinkerer. Dangling a shiny new SDK that I can play with triggers the Pavlovian response to download it and start playing Right. This. Very. Nanosecond.
But this time I’ll be d—ned if I do, knowing that any data transfered will be fed straight to Big Brother. Nuh-uh: That’s just arming the enemy. There’s reason they shoot collaborators in wartime, and AT&T is the Vichy government in that respect. Quite apart from the fact that they were just plain wankers before 9/11. (And probably still are.)
Gadgets are gadgets, and my weakness for shiny new toys is probably as big as the next programmer’s. My husband-also a programmer-jokes that “Programming is easy when you hate your users.” I can’t imagine hating my users badly enough to sell them out to the NSA, though. Sorry, for all I’d love a new gadget and SDK to play with (‘speshly one with a high cool factor), ethics matter.
Shane Vitarana
on 09 Mar 08I’ve been dabbling with getting Ruby running on the iPhone. MacRuby isn’t going to work in its current state because it depends on the Objective-C garbage collector, which isn’t supported on the iPhone. I haven’t looked into RubyCocoa yet, but it is more likely than MacRuby to run on the iPhone since it uses the Ruby garbage collector. However, in both cases, memory limitations make using Ruby less viable.
Poagao
on 10 Mar 08It may be the case where you are, but if you’re in most countries with no iTunes Store access, this doesn’t mean much. So those people over there in that country are allowed to buy and utilize these interesting gadgets by Apple? Huh.
goes back to universally usable 3.5G WM6 device
Per
on 10 Mar 08One big issue I have with the Apple guys is that they’re so damn slow moving their products in Europe.
I live in Sweden, and I can’t buy an IPhone, can’t download movies to my AppleTV, and sure as hell I couldn’t register for the IPhone SDK today.
That shit just pisses me off.
Afternoon
on 10 Mar 08@richs: Apple won’t dominate the majority of handsets simply because the majority of people buy cheap. Go to the 2nd or 3rd world and try and find an iPod. It’s not easy. There are lots of things that look like iPods, but Apple has almost no market share outside the western world.
Gnu iz kewl
on 11 Mar 08I’m gonna hold out for a really cool linux phone, before you gloat, remember how quickly linux, in the ubuntu variant, went from it’s console glory to compiz graphics that rival vista and leopard – all for no cost…..the same is gonna happen on the mobile…extensible technology, java, perl, ruby etc, if Microsoft is Goliath and linux David, why the hell does Apple want to get served too?
This discussion is closed.