In this Newsweek article from 1995, Clifford Stoll suggested it would be unlikely we’d buy books over the web or read newspapers online.
But he didn’t stop there. He didn’t think internet shopping would work because the internet was missing salespeople:
We’re promised instant catalog shopping—just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obselete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet — which there isn’t — the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.
Anyway, 1995 was definitely the early days. Plenty of predictions were wrong. Who knew what was going to happen. We can’t fault him for having an opinion.
But reading his opinion today does highlight just how far we’ve come in such a short time. Just about everything in his piece — from news to shopping to government — has been fundamentally changed by the web. What he thought wouldn’t work has actually worked so well that it’s hard to imagine our lives without it.
Further, his article shines a light on the burden of assumptions. Stoll assumed one of the reasons online shopping would fail was because it lacked salespeople. That was an assumption tied to his present day experience; a person had to sell you something.
How much of what you say can’t change is tied to your present day assumptions? “We can’t do that in our business” or “That would never work here” or “We have to have that” or “We need this in order to do that” or “That’s just how its done.”
Vision is about demolishing today’s assumptions and recognizing that new things are possible. It takes real guts to fight for the side of the non-obvious.
It also reminds me of one of my favorite quotes by Daniel Burnham. I usually just excerpt the first part of this quote, but in this case the end is what’s relevant:
Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work, remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing, asserting itself with ever-growing insistency. Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would stagger us. Let your watchword be order and your beacon beauty. Think big.
As far as the internet goes, we didn’t have to wait for our sons and grandsons to surprise us. We surprised ourselves.
On the bright side, it seems Clifford has come around. He sells Klein Bottles over the web. Curiously, doesn’t it look like his site was designed in 1995?
Brad
on 22 Mar 08Man, I loved his book The Cuckoo’s Egg. When I was a kid, that story single-handedly fired me up about computers, the Internet, and technology. It always felt a little strange to me that he’d write that spectacular book and then give up on technology the way he did.
Jens Alfke
on 22 Mar 08Reminds me of Clarke’s First Law:
“When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”
Even back in 1995, Stoll probably counted as “elderly” in Internet years =)
Gregor J. Rothfuss
on 23 Mar 08That site is from 1996, according to the footer, so he came around pretty quickly. Or is a hedging man.
Lawrence
on 23 Mar 08Man, shopping succeeded on the web because there are no salespeople.
mkb
on 23 Mar 08At times, shopping sucks on the web when there are no salespeople. (and salesperson simulation software is too expensive to do right)
Narendra
on 23 Mar 08Nice post Jason. I still have some old articles from 1994-1995 in a folder somewhere that I need to revisit.
Aside – my wife has issues with the “sons and grandsons” portion of the quote and I am wondering where this fits in with your 4-day work week ;-)
Devan
on 23 Mar 08Great Post! Just wanted to say that I can detect a change in the tone of the posts in the last few weeks, You guys are definitely starting to find the right voice again. I have enjoyed many recent postings as they have hit something ‘deep inside’ which has forced me to think, re-examine, challenge and ponder.
Keep it up – there will still be the pickers and haters out there, but I am definitely enjoying SVN again…
GeeIWonder
on 23 Mar 08Remember that our sons and grandsons are going to do things that would stagger us
[...] Like figure out how to bike the morning commute in LA and the rest of North America.
Martin
on 23 Mar 08“from news to shopping to government — has been fundamentally changed by the web.”
No actually, it hasn’t – the medium has changed slightly (sites instead of catalogues, more online newspapers versus print, but still produced by the same people), but these things are fundamentally the same as they were before.
Nothing illustrates this fact more than the Bush administration. If governance was supposed to become more open and democratic, how did the US end up with one of the most Orwellian administrations ever, with their endless scandals, coverups, lies, war, torture, spying etc? No, instead they relied on tried and true methods (the same methods used by every warmongering government), they got what they wanted and the internet was completely powerless to stop it. This, more than anything should drive the point home that nothing has fundamentally changed, and likely won’t for a long time.
Kenn Wilson
on 23 Mar 08The most glaring oversight in Stoll’s comment is that in 1995 people had already been shopping without the “benefit” of salespeople for over a hundred years, ever since the first Sears catalog came out.
Mike Booth
on 23 Mar 08“Man, shopping succeeded on the web because there are no salespeople.”
Yes and no. There are plenty of salespeople on the web. The web just makes it easier to find the good ones, and for the good ones to be massively more effective.
This very blog is run by master salespeople. Most of us don’t notice that very often, because it’s run by the best kind of salespeople: The ones who know what they’re doing, are happy to help you solve your problems, leave you alone when you want to be left alone, have other interests in life besides sales, sell other products as well as their own, and don’t constantly push for your credit card number.
Brandon Ferguson
on 24 Mar 08Back in those days of the Internet I always liked Cliff’s commentary. It seemed like someone was bringing some sense to the table for once.
To me Cliff never felt like he was saying it wasn’t going to happen but more that it wasn’t going to replace the physical versions. A lot of his commentaries that I remember were basically “Don’t forget to go outside – no matter how real it gets on there it’s never going to replace this.” The was refreshing when it seemed like everyone was screaming that the Information Super Highway was going to replace everything with digital (and thus somehow better) versions.
I like the version of the Internet that we have now versus what people were selling back in that day. Now I have options, I can avoid the salesperson or go down the road and talk to one when I really need to. Sounds like both the Cliff’s and the Information Super Highway people of the world were right, and I’d say it even took both to get here.
Mark Holton
on 24 Mar 08...Cuckoo’s Egg was a great book. Stoll is a very very smart engineer … it’s just not easy to ‘predict the future’.
Things really have moved fast, which is great to see.
Tom
on 24 Mar 08For a flashback that’s a little more positive, check out “Living With a Computer” from the 1982 edition of Atlantic Monthly:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/198207/fallows-computer
Michael Zuschlag
on 24 Mar 08Much of what Stoll complains about in the original article was wrong not from faulty assumptions but over-generalization of early web growing pains (e.g., inadequate search). He was dead right about the web being little more than “instant catalog shopping,” which won’t make stores obsolete any more than physical catalogs did. A more interesting question is why after 10+ years of ecommerce am I still getting catalogues in the mail? What do ecommerce sites lack that catalogues have?
Scott
on 24 Mar 08Was Burnham a fan of Goethe?
“Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power, and magic in it.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Interesting viewpoints from men who stood at the new edges of a revolution (industrial).LessMor
on 24 Mar 08@Michael Z Perhaps you still getting catalogs because they can be sent to you without any input from you. An ecommerce site can’t force its way into your home, a catalog can.
razmaspaz
on 24 Mar 08Salespeople are reemerging in a different model. Now we call them bloggers. Instead of a guy motivated by the quick sale and no relationship or someone tied to a single retailer, we now have independent sales people who can recommend products from anywhere and can be considered with differing degrees of trustworthiness based on a personal relationship with their readers. I think the Internet will ultimately redefine the sales relationship and turn the salesmen into a trusted ally in the marketplace instead of today’s image of the sleazy anything to make the sale type that became so pervasive throughout the 20th century (door to door bible salesman for example).
Chris
on 25 Mar 08Hi Jason,
I just started using Backpack to help my friend Colleen expand her business. I was looking to see if Basecamp would work better for us and I found this blog. I was struck by this quote of yours:
“Vision is about demolishing today’s assumptions and recognizing that new things are possible. It takes real guts to fight for the side of the non-obvious.”
It occurs to me that this fits perfectly with the work we are doing and I’d like to add it to our list of inspiring quotes. I may even make it my new sig file!
Just thought you should know that while you’re quoting Burnham, I’ll be quoting you!
Thanks, Chris
Todd
on 25 Mar 08Amazing stuff. Never doubt the possibilities.
Jason Liebe
on 25 Mar 08I’m afraid the salesmen are still around. Nothing pisses me off more than when you want to sign up for some service online, or take a 30 day trial, etc. But the site requires you to enter an absurd amount of info so a salesperson can get in touch. Or, even worse, you must “attend” a webinar in 2-3 days, or schedule a gotomeeting, etc.
I think it’s the old school sales cronies getting into the Web app biz and applying outdated thinking. It’s the frame of mind that asserts people are too dumb to make a decision on their own. That, or the product sucks, or is overpriced, and the people making it know it, so they put on the hard sell.
Chris Sparks
on 25 Mar 08Clifford Stoll was always a nutjob. He used to be on the MSNBC show called “The Site” and he would just go on and on about how the internet divides people and would never live up to the hype. It’s funny because I haven’t heard from that guy in a long time. He’s probably playing WoW like the rest of the world.
Some other guy
on 25 Mar 08For one, ecommerce sites lack the physical presence of the catalogues. In other words, you cannot touch, feel and smell an ecommerce site.
But your question is akin to asking: “Why, after 100+ years of automobile industry, am I still seeing horses and carriages around? What do automobiles lack that horses and carriages have?”
Dominic Messenger
on 26 Mar 08Back in 1996 I had the same views as Cliff, but I am happy to admit that I was wrong.
I would love to sell our technology to our customers over the web. It makes total sense. Unfortunately, our customers are still quill and papyrus types who insist on face-to-face demos, 2-3 day seminars and want stuff installed on their equipment (it SaaS technology guys!).
It takes 2 to tango and most of the world is still stuck in the 20th century.
May
on 27 Mar 08Never say Never…... :)
This discussion is closed.